70th Anniversary of the Armistice... North Korea's Military Parade at the First US-ROK NCG Meeting

First Meeting of Korea-US Nuclear Consultative Group Likely Held This Month
70th Anniversary of Armistice Agreement... North Korea's 70th Victory Day Military Parade
"Reconnaissance Satellite Relaunch Enforced... Possibility of Military Provocation"

With the 70th anniversary of the Armistice Agreement approaching, South Korea and the United States are expected to hold the first meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) this month, while North Korea appears poised to stage a large-scale military parade to shift the situation. North Korea may either proceed with the announced re-launch of its reconnaissance satellite or respond with military provocations in line with the moves by South Korea and the U.S. regarding North Korea's nuclear threat.

According to diplomatic and security officials on the 3rd, the first NCG meeting is highly likely to be held this month. It is known that consultations are currently underway between South Korean and U.S. authorities regarding key agenda items. Earlier, Cho Hyun-dong, South Korea’s ambassador to the U.S., stated at a press briefing held in Washington D.C. on the 28th of last month (local time), "With North Korea declaring its intention to re-launch a reconnaissance satellite, various levels of South Korea and the U.S. are sharing related developments and closely coordinating response measures," adding, "Discussions on holding the first meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group between South Korea and the U.S. have also made progress."

The US nuclear-powered attack submarine Springfield (SSN 761, 6000-ton class) docked at the Naval Operations Command Busan Base

The NCG is one of the core issues included in the 'Washington Declaration' announced by President Yoon Suk-yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden during their summit in April. It is a concrete, high-level permanent consultative body on extended deterrence, where South Korea and the U.S. plan to discuss joint planning and implementation measures for the U.S. military’s nuclear operations in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula. Strategies combining the U.S. military’s nuclear forces with South Korea’s conventional forces are also expected to be addressed.

Particularly noteworthy is whether the 'U.S. strategic nuclear submarines (SSBN) calling at the Korean Peninsula,' explicitly stated in the Washington Declaration, will be discussed at the NCG. Previously, on the 16th of last month, the U.S. nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine (SSGN) USS Michigan docked at the Busan operational base. The difference between SSBNs and SSGNs is that SSBNs carry submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) equipped with nuclear warheads, while SSGNs carry out strike missions using Tomahawk cruise missiles and other weapons.

North Korea is preparing a large-scale military parade on the 27th to mark the 70th anniversary of Victory Day. This is an attempt to frame the Armistice Agreement signing day as a 'day of victory,' and since it is a milestone anniversary (every 5 or 10 years), there is a possibility that new weapons systems will be showcased domestically and internationally. At the military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army in February, North Korea unveiled a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and conducted a test launch two months later in April.

'July Packed with Security Issues'...Will North Korea Respond to the NCG with Provocations?

North Korea's Kim Jong-un

With overlapping security schedules for the South and the North this month, military tensions on the Korean Peninsula are expected to continue escalating. Above all, North Korea is likely to be deeply concerned as this is an important turning point marking the end of the first half of the year and the beginning of the second half. This timing will determine whether it can calm public unrest caused by food shortages and maintain a hardline external strategy through the end of the year. North Korea’s 'best-case scenario' to build momentum?starting with the reconnaissance satellite launch in May, the Party plenary meeting in June, and the Victory Day parade in July?has completely fallen apart.

While a re-launch of the reconnaissance satellite is not expected to be easy in the short term, some speculate that North Korea might push ahead with the re-launch to change the atmosphere and consolidate unity, even if it means taking risks. If the failed engine was a new model, they might proceed with a re-launch using a proven older engine. North Korea had previously stated on the day of the satellite failure that "the reliability and stability of the new propulsion system (engine) were insufficient," revealing the cause of the accident.

There is also speculation that North Korea might carry out military provocations timed with the NCG schedule. Although North Korea typically refrains from provocations during the summer months of July to September, which coincide with the farming season, last year it conducted six provocations during this period, including multiple rocket launcher, cruise missile, and ballistic missile launches. Given that North Korea has little to boast of as 'Kim Jong-un’s achievements' this year, the nuclear consultations between South Korea and the U.S. provide ample justification for provocations.

Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University’s Department of North Korean Studies said, "July will be a very important month for the Korean Peninsula," adding, "Since the reconnaissance satellite, which had been a major focus, failed, Kim Jong-un will not let the Victory Day pass without highlighting his achievements." He continued, "With internal conditions, including food shortages, becoming widely known to be very poor, North Korea is in a position where it must take a gamble before moving into the second half of the year," and predicted, "They will be deeply considering whether to regain momentum through a military parade or provocations and carry it through to the end of the year, or whether to create a justification for engaging in dialogue."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.