"US Contacts Russia via Unofficial Channel Saying 'No Change' During Prigozhin Rebellion"
There have been reports that the United States recently conveyed its position to Russia through unofficial channels when Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian mercenary company Wagner Group, launched an armed rebellion.
On the 28th (local time), according to the U.S. political media outlet Politico, the White House decided that it needed to communicate directly with the Kremlin while watching the rebellion unfold dramatically in Russia, and U.S. officials contacted their counterparts within the Russian government using established diplomatic channels.
The White House reportedly conveyed that it regarded Prigozhin's rebellion as an internal Russian matter and that there would be no changes to the positions of the U.S. and NATO forces.
It was also communicated that direct dialogue at the highest level between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin was not necessary.
Ian Bremmer, president of the think tank Eurasia Group, who first revealed this U.S.-Russia 'backchannel communication,' said, "Every measure was taken to ensure that Russia would not see the U.S. as interfering in this matter," and assessed that "from the U.S. perspective, it was quite useful to convey that U.S. policy is about defending Ukraine's territory, not regime change in Russia."
A U.S. government official confirmed to Politico that contact was made through unofficial channels and emphasized that both countries routinely use such open channels when there are important messages to convey.
When Prigozhin advanced toward Moscow passing through Rostov in southern Russia, the U.S. State Department urged all diplomatic personnel not to leave U.S. diplomatic facilities.
The official explained that this was purely a precautionary measure and not a response to any specific threat.
Politico reported that President Biden, during conversations with NATO leaders over the weekend when the rebellion occurred, requested agreement that it was best for the West to maintain as much silence as possible.
However, with the Russian situation appearing unstable and Ukraine's counteroffensive faltering, and with the NATO summit scheduled for next month, the U.S. government is closely monitoring President Putin's movements while seeking to ascertain the facts related to Prigozhin's rebellion.
The U.S. is particularly focused on why President Putin initially severed ties with Prigozhin and how he will proceed with purges amid internal divisions.
Regarding whether President Putin's authority was dramatically weakened by Prigozhin's rebellion, Biden's security team is cautious. President Biden himself said on the day, "It's hard to know."
However, U.S. officials believe that Putin's agreement to Prigozhin's relocation to Belarus was motivated by a desire to prevent the spread of bloodshed within Russia.
This also raises questions about whether the U.S. can go beyond current limits in providing Ukraine with more lethal long-range weapons, including F-16 fighter jets.
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Two sources familiar with the matter said that the incident suggests Putin's 'red line' may be weaker than expected, and that fears of expanding internal divisions might lead to a decision not to escalate the conflict.
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