Even if Prigozhin seeks asylum, safety is not guaranteed... "Putin will find the traitor"

As the armed rebellion by the Russian mercenary group Wagner ended in a 'brief moment of glory,' attention is focused on the whereabouts of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and the mercenaries. With President Vladimir Putin, who has ruled with an iron fist for 23 years, suffering a critical blow to his leadership, there is also speculation about whether he will seek revenge against Prigozhin in the future.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

According to major foreign media on the 25th (local time), Prigozhin is expected to first leave Russia and seek asylum in Belarus under an agreement mediated by the Belarusian government between the Kremlin and Wagner. However, there are concerns that Prigozhin's safety cannot be guaranteed in Belarus, a Russian ally.

Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has been called a dictator who has ruled for nearly 30 years since taking power in 1994. A longtime friend of President Putin, he supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Recently, he allowed Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons aimed at Ukraine on Belarusian soil.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a Belarusian opposition leader in exile, said, "Lukashenko is never a peacemaker," and added, "It is uncertain what he will do with Prigozhin."

Exiled political analyst Artem Shraibman predicted, "Just because Prigozhin goes to Belarus does not mean he will stay there. He has nothing to do in Belarus, so he will move to another country."

There are also views that President Putin will seek out the traitors and retaliate. The German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) also predicted that Prigozhin's life would not be safe even if he sought asylum in Belarus, forecasting that President Putin would find the traitors.

Former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov told the BBC, "Prigozhin will initially go to Belarus but will end up in Africa, in jungle-like places," adding, "Putin will not be able to forgive him." Wagner forces are deployed in various African countries, exploiting local political instability to intervene in civil wars or suppress opposition to regimes.

As for the Wagner mercenaries, there are various possibilities, such as individually signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense or being demobilized in Russia. They may also leave for Belarus.

Meanwhile, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, previously announced the cancellation of the criminal charges against Prigozhin and stated that Prigozhin would leave for Belarus. Regarding the Wagner mercenaries, he said those who sympathized with the rebellion would not be prosecuted, and those who did not participate in the rebellion would sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.