[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea May Conduct Additional Provocations by Re-launching Projectiles

North Korea is expected to continue localized provocations following the launch of a space launch vehicle on the 31st. When it launched the ‘Kwangmyongsong-4’ in 2016, it also carried out provocations in a feint manner, raising military tensions to the maximum level.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On February 7, 2016, North Korea launched the long-range rocket (missile) ‘Kwangmyongsong-4’ and the very next day, on the 8th, sent a North Korean patrol boat to the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea. One North Korean patrol boat crossed the NLL near Sochengdo in the West Sea and approached within 300 meters of South Korean waters. The South Korean Navy issued multiple warning communications, but the North Korean patrol boat did not respond, prompting warning fire of five 76mm shells, escalating military tensions to a peak. Notably, one month before the launch of Kwangmyongsong-4, North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test, leading to the suspension of operations at the Kaesong Industrial Complex and a breakdown in inter-Korean dialogue.

At the time, military insiders analyzed that the additional provocations were in response to the upcoming joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises and the emerging United Nations Security Council sanctions. The current timing of North Korea’s satellite launch is no different. The South Korean military is conducting defense drills on the northwestern islands, while multinational forces are carrying out the Asia-Pacific rotational exercise ‘EASTERN ENDEAVOR 23’ on Jeju Island.

Some speculate that if North Korea’s satellite launch fails rather than engaging in localized provocations, it may attempt to re-launch the satellite to compensate. In April 2012, the ‘Kwangmyongsong-3’ launched aboard the long-range rocket ‘Unha-3’ exploded shortly after launch due to failure to separate the first and second stages. To make up for this, eight months later in December, North Korea launched ‘Kwangmyongsong-3 Unit 2’ aboard the Unha-3. The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) confirmed its orbital insertion.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, “Given that our military is currently conducting various exercises with the international community, it seems more important from North Korea’s perspective to reattempt the satellite launch and announce its success rather than carry out localized provocations.”

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