The Truth Behind the Rumor "It Will Rain Except for Three Days in July"... The Korea Meteorological Administration's Response

KMA: "That Possibility Is Virtually Unlikely"
"Maximum Precipitation Forecast Period Is 2 Weeks" Revealed

As rumors spread that it will rain every day in July except for three days, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stated on the 15th that "the possibility is virtually low."

Recently, a summer weather forecast for Seoul provided by Microsoft has become a hot topic on online communities. The forecast predicted that out of 62 days in July and August, it will only not rain on 5 days.

As this forecast spread, netizens expressed bewildered reactions such as "What is this?" and "When can we play baseball?"

Weather forecast for Seoul in July provided by a computer operating system company Photo by Twitter

However, according to multiple media reports, the KMA stated that "the maximum period for which precipitation can be predicted with modern science and technology is about two weeks." The initial slight errors increase over time, so the accuracy decreases as the forecast extends into the long term.

Woo Jin-gyu, a spokesperson for the KMA, said about this forecast, "It can simply be displayed based on calculations," but also added on the 14th through Yonhap News TV, "Saying it is one or two months later means there is no real-time data (observed values) to run numerical models, so it should be considered a risky attempt."

Professor Park Sun-ki of Ewha Womans University’s Department of Climate and Energy Systems Engineering explained, "After two weeks, it should transition from medium-range forecasts to seasonal predictions," and added, "For general daily life or weather forecast purposes, forecasts beyond 10 days to two weeks are not very meaningful."

In fact, the Microsoft weather service homepage also includes a phrase stating, "Refer to accurate weather forecast information within 10 days."

The problem is that such inaccurate forecasts often spread indiscriminately online. In this case as well, a tweet posting the forecast recorded 2.97 million views and spread to numerous netizens.

Meanwhile, according to the Weather Act, only the head of the KMA can issue forecasts and warnings. However, exceptions are made for cases related to national defense purposes and for those registered as weather forecasting businesses.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.