Changed Western Perception, Reconsidering China's Role in Ukraine Ceasefire

As Ukraine is reportedly preparing for a major spring counteroffensive, recent reports have confirmed a growing perception among Western countries, including the United States, that China's mediation could help bring Russia to the peace negotiation table by the end of the year.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 7th (local time) that the U.S. and its allies are exploring China's potential role in ending the Ukraine war. As the conflict prolongs, there is a gradual shift in Western countries' perceptions regarding China's willingness to intervene.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Until now, U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken, who has openly restrained China's involvement, softened his stance last week at a Washington Post forum, stating, "If China or any other country with significant influence is prepared to pursue a just and sustainable peace, in principle, there is no problem," adding, "We would welcome that."

WSJ cited European officials reporting that key officials from the U.S. National Security Council (NSC) currently support peace negotiations. However, the U.S. State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) prefer to wait and observe Ukraine's spring counteroffensive, the outlet added. Ultimately, it is expected that the White House may strengthen support for talks depending on the outcome of Ukraine's spring counteroffensive. Accordingly, European officials anticipate that President Joe Biden will signal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky within a few months that a ceasefire negotiation could be appropriate.

Meanwhile, China, which has positioned itself as a mediator since February, is reportedly interested in a broad ceasefire agreement in which it would act as a guarantor. Chinese President Xi Jinping held a direct phone call with President Zelensky on the 26th of last month?the first since the outbreak of the Ukraine war?emphasizing dialogue and negotiations, and plans to soon send a special envoy to Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.

WSJ, citing European officials, reported that European leaders want China to participate in ceasefire negotiations. French President Emmanuel Macron is considered a prominent figure who has openly supported negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, conveyed that Western leaders now want to stop the war.

However, officials noted that the shift in Western perceptions regarding China's role is based on the understanding that neither Ukraine nor Russia can sustain the war indefinitely, and on the belief that China's willingness to play a role in peace negotiations must be tested. Secretary Blinken also stated, "It is essential to clarify the premise that there is an aggressor and a victim in the Ukraine war," adding, "It is uncertain whether China accepts this."

The willingness of Russian President Vladimir Putin to engage in ceasefire negotiations is also crucial. Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence, expressed concern at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the 4th, saying, "It is likely that President Putin believes time is on his side." Observing that Putin expects Western support for Ukraine to weaken over time, she suggested that he may ultimately opt to endure. Haines pointed out that even if Putin agrees to a "pause through negotiations," it could be a move to reorganize Russian forces for a future invasion.

Meanwhile, major foreign media outlets have assessed that Ukraine's spring counteroffensive could be the most critical phase of the war. The Washington Post reported, "The planned counteroffensive, based on Western weapons and training support, aims to reclaim territory and prove that Ukraine deserves continued Western support." However, the outlet added that if the counteroffensive fails, Western military aid could weaken, potentially leading to unwanted peace negotiations.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.