"Up to 2.1 Million Deaths if North Korea and the US Use Nuclear Weapons"

Japanese Researchers Conduct Simulations of Five Scenarios
Two Cases Presented Where Nuclear Weapons Are Used on the Korean Peninsula

A simulation result showed that if the United States and North Korea engage in war using nuclear weapons, up to 2.1 million people could die within a few months.

According to Japanese broadcaster NHK on the 8th, the Nuclear Weapon Abolition Research Center (RECNA) at Nagasaki University, together with the Nautilus Institute in the United States, conducted a simulation of the human casualties that would result if nuclear weapons were used in Northeast Asia and announced the results. Based on each country's nuclear strategy and the international situation, the research team assumed a total of five scenarios and estimated the number of deaths. Among them, two scenarios involved the use of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.

The first scenario is a situation where North Korea, cornered by domestic and international economic pressure, preemptively targets coastal areas of South Korea to bring the United States and South Korea to the negotiating table.

If North Korea uses a nuclear weapon with an explosive power of 10kt (kiloton; 1kt equals the explosive power of 1,000 tons of TNT), which is smaller than the nuclear weapon dropped on Hiroshima, the United States retaliates with conventional weapons at South Korea's request, and then North Korea uses two small nuclear weapons at locations presumed to be hiding intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or nuclear weapons.

[Image source=Pixabay]

In this case, 11,000 people, accounting for 27% of the population in the attacked area, are expected to die, and 16,000 to 36,000 people could die long-term from cancer caused by exposure to radioactive materials.

The second scenario assumes that the United States preemptively uses nuclear weapons to attack North Korea's nuclear missile system, citing the threat to the U.S. mainland from North Korea's ICBMs.

If North Korea retaliates with nuclear weapons targeting U.S. military bases in South Korea and Japan, China intervenes. Consequently, the United States and China attack each other's military facilities with nuclear weapons, resulting in a total of 18 nuclear weapons being used. In this case, 2.1 million people, or 33% of the population in the attacked areas, are estimated to die within a few months, and 480,000 to 920,000 people could die from cancer caused by exposure to radioactive materials.

Meanwhile, among the five scenarios, the one with the highest estimated death toll is a war involving nuclear weapons between the U.S. and China. This situation arises when the United States militarily supports Taiwan in response to China's attack on Taiwan's military facilities, leading to a clash. In this case, 2.6 million people are expected to die within a few months, and 96,000 to 830,000 people could die long-term from cancer.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.