China's 5-Year Arms Export Drops 23%... Signal of Domestic Military Stockpiling?
SCMP "Focus on Domestic Demand Amid Geopolitical Tensions"
China's arms exports have sharply declined over the past five years. Amid escalating geopolitical tensions such as the US-China conflict and the ongoing war in Ukraine, some analysts suggest this may signal China's military stockpiling.
On the 14th, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported this citing data on China's arms exports released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). According to the data, China's arms exports from 2018 to 2022 decreased by 23% compared to 2013 to 2017. During the same period, China's share of global arms exports also fell from 6.3% to 5.2%.
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Professor Ni Ruxiong of Shanghai University of Political Science and Law stated, "The geopolitical environment surrounding mainland China is deteriorating, including issues related to Taiwan, border disputes with India, and recently, China-Japan relations," and diagnosed that the decline in arms exports may be a sign that China is focusing more on domestic demand. China's decision to increase its defense budget by 7.2%, the largest increase in four years, also supports this assessment. This year, China's defense budget amounts to 1.55 trillion yuan (approximately 295.7245 trillion won).
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On the other hand, the SIPRI report revealed that China's imports of military goods increased by 4.1% compared to the previous five years from 2018 to 2022. Russia remained the dominant supplier, accounting for 83% of China's total imports, followed by France and Ukraine. During the same period, arms imports from Russia increased by 39%. However, Professor Ni noted, "As China has increased domestic production of advanced weapons, its dependence on Russian arms decreased from 2018?2020 to 2020?2022," and diagnosed that "the exposure of Russia's weaknesses in the Ukraine war may have caused the decrease in imports."
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