Democratic Party Declines in Realmeter Regular Survey... "Progressive and 40s Demographic Defection Movement"

After the Rejection of Arrest During Lee Jae-myung's Detention: Aftermath
People Power Party 44.3% vs Democratic Party 40.7%
President Yoon's Approval Rating Rises 2.5%p to 42.9%

Amid controversy over the arrest consent motion for Representative Lee Jae-myung, the support rate for the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is clearly declining. After the arrest consent motion was narrowly rejected, the controversy spread as hardcore DPK supporters began to 'root out rebel votes,' resulting in a significant drop in support within the party's core base.

According to a regular opinion poll conducted by Realmeter (commissioned by Media Tribune, conducted over four days from the 27th of last month to the 3rd of this month, surveying 2,006 adults aged 18 and over nationwide using an ARS automated response method), the DPK's support rate fell by 3.2 percentage points from the previous week to 40.7%. The People Power Party (PPP) recorded a 2.1 percentage point increase to 44.3%. The gap between the two parties was 3.6 percentage points, showing a close race within the margin of error.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

For the DPK, support declined in Daegu-Gyeongbuk (down 5.7 points), Gwangju-Jeolla (down 5.0 points), women (down 5.0 points), people in their 40s (down 6.6 points), people in their 20s (down 5.5 points), and progressives (down 9.2 points). It is noteworthy that Honam, women, people in their 40s, and progressives are core support groups for the DPK.

Senior Specialist Bae Cheol-ho of Realmeter explained regarding this poll, "While the result of the arrest consent vote itself is significant, the internal party turmoil following the vote, such as the 'watermelon root-out' and 'rebel vote' controversies, is analyzed as a major factor in the sharp drop in support." He added, "The decline was led more by progressives (from 77.7% to 68.5%) than by centrists (from 47.3% to 42.9%). The drop among progressives is the largest since the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-youl administration, and it is the first time since the second week of May (69.1%) that the DPK's support among progressives fell below 70%."

Earlier, in a regular poll conducted by Gallup (over two days on the 28th of last month and the 2nd of this month, surveying 1,001 adults aged 18 and over nationwide via telephone interviewer interviews), the DPK's support rate was 29%, down 5 percentage points from the previous week. The PPP's support rose by 2 percentage points to 39%. The gap between the two parties, which had narrowed to within the margin of error last week, widened to 10%, exceeding the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). The DPK's support falling below 30% is the first time in eight months.

Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice and an expert in opinion polling, said, "The decline in DPK support is particularly noticeable among Honam, people in their 40s, and white-collar workers, groups where many DPK supporters are concentrated." On the 27th of last month, the arrest consent motion for Representative Lee was voted on with 297 out of 299 members present, resulting in 139 votes in favor, 138 against, 11 invalid votes, and 9 abstentions, leading to its rejection. With up to 38 dissenting votes within the DPK, the so-called 'watermelon (a term referring to those who appear supportive on the outside but are different inside) root-out' campaign led by Lee's supporters deepened internal party conflicts. However, the lack of political leadership to unify the party caused a loss of support, according to Kim.

Meanwhile, President Yoon Seok-youl's approval rating, according to Realmeter, continued to rise for the third consecutive week, maintaining support in the 40% range. President Yoon's approval rating increased by 2.5 percentage points from the previous poll to 42.9%. Negative evaluations dropped by 3.8 percentage points to 53.2%.

For more details, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.