"Ukraine War, More Intense in Spring and Summer... Ceasefire Talks Reflecting War Situation"

Professor Shin Beomsik of Seoul National University Department of Political Science and International Relations CBS Interview
"The West is giving tanks but whether they will provide F16s..."
"Possibility of some resolution in the war situation within this year"

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] "The fact that Russia has held out and Ukraine has held out until now is actually a quite special situation."

Professor Shin Beom-sik of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University said in an interview with CBS Radio's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show' on the 22nd, "I believe there is a possibility that the war situation will be somewhat settled within this year, but I think we need to go through a rather fierce war process before reaching a phase where it is settled."

This forecast comes at the one-year mark since the start of the Ukraine war. Although the war does not seem likely to end immediately, there is an analysis that a turning point could be reached within this year.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Professor Shin diagnosed that the background enabling Russia to continue the war despite Western sanctions is China's support. He explained, "(China) does not sanction Russia and maintains normal trade relations, continuously supplying Russia with national wealth through trade, thus serving as a kind of background that allows Russia to sustain the war."

Professor Shin said, "It is not bad for China if the war ends quickly," adding,

"Ultimately, after the stabilization of the Xi Jinping regime, the key issues for China are whether it can drive the economy and how it handles the US-China strategic economy. To advance the economy, there must be room for improvement, and as Ukraine's strength somewhat weakens, it seems advantageous for China if the war ends without Russia losing face."

Professor Shin said, "China hopes the (war) ends, but hopes it ends without Russia being defeated."

This is the same for Ukraine and the United States. Professor Shin said, "From President Zelensky's (Ukraine) perspective, the moment he tries to compromise, there would be domestic political collapse," adding, "Given that it is not easy for the parties involved to end the war now, the important issue will be how external pressure is applied."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The variable is that the United States has promised new weapons supply. Professor Shin said, "Since new weapons supply has been promised, there is a possibility that the war will become more intense in spring and summer, and since the war will ultimately end at the negotiation table, external efforts to persuade both sides with a ceasefire plan reflecting the war situation will inevitably continue."

There is a forecast that more intense fighting will unfold in the spring and summer battles this year. The more the analysis that the war will end gains strength, the more both Ukraine and Russia will fight fiercely to secure as much territory as possible.

"Even after the ceasefire negotiations began in the Korean War, the battles became fiercer because both sides wanted to gain even an inch of land. Evaluating this one-year war, Russia has achieved half of its goal: territorializing and liberating the Donbas region, but it has not been able to fully control Ukraine. Ukraine, supported by the West, is fighting well and holding off Russia. This pattern is likely to lead to a war with more sacrifices through the spring and summer battles. That is my thought."

Professor Shin predicted that although the West has promised weapons support, it will be cautious about providing F-16s and long-range missiles, unlike tanks.

Professor Shin explained, "The issue is whether to supply F-16s or long-range missiles, because if supplied, attacks on Russian mainland would become possible, which could lead to escalation. From the West's perspective, while they provide tanks, the decision to provide or not provide F-16s and long-range missiles is actually an important variable that could determine how long this war will last."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.