Seismologists' Warning: "This Time is a Rehearsal, Next is Istanbul"

Istanbul, a Metropolis with Over 16 Million Residents
"Anatolia and Eurasian Tectonic Plates Converge... Earthquake Risk"

A warning has been issued that an earthquake larger than the magnitude 7.8 quake that struck southeastern Turkey last week could hit Istanbul, Turkey's largest city.

On the 17th (local time), the Turkish daily H?rriyet reported, citing local seismologists, that a destructive earthquake could occur in Istanbul. The experts warned that since Istanbul is located 15 to 20 km south of the North Anatolian Fault zone, where the Anatolian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet and which is prone to earthquakes, a major earthquake could happen in the future.

Istanbul, the largest city in Turkey.
[Photo source=Pixabay]

Istanbul is the only city in the world that spans two continents, Europe and Asia, and nearly 20% of Turkey's total population lives there. The official population of Istanbul is 16 million, with the unofficial population estimated at 20 million.

It is known that Istanbul has approximately 1,166,000 residential buildings with an average of more than 3.3 people living in each. Of these, 817,000 buildings, or 70%, were constructed before the 1999 Izmit earthquake and are not earthquake-resistant. Therefore, if an earthquake occurs in Istanbul, the destructive power and scale of damage are expected to be incomparable to the recent southeastern earthquake.

Experts analyzed that if a magnitude 7.5 earthquake strikes Istanbul, about 13,000 buildings would suffer 'severe' damage, 39,000 buildings would have 'major' damage, 136,000 buildings would experience 'moderate' damage, and approximately 300,000 buildings would sustain 'minor' damage. They also suggested that the recent earthquake might have been a 'rehearsal' for a potential future earthquake in Istanbul.

Istanbul suffered massive damage from a magnitude 7.6 major earthquake on August 17, 1999. The earthquake, which occurred near Izmit close to Istanbul, officially resulted in 17,127 deaths and missing persons, and over 50,000 injuries. However, some estimates suggest the actual death toll could have been much higher, between 45,000 and 50,000 or more.

Meanwhile, H?rriyet also reported that requests for building inspections in Istanbul have increased by about 90% since the earthquake last week. Inspection results revealed foreign materials such as sea sand, seashells, newspapers, Styrofoam, and wood in concrete samples from some old buildings.

Regarding this, a local government official stated, "If dangerous structures are found during inspections and demolition is necessary, related procedures will be carried out," adding, "Citizens living in newly constructed buildings that have received concrete and ground investigation certificates need not worry."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.