'Fake Yoon Sim' Worked? Kim Ki-hyun's Dominance Theory Resurfaces

Public Opinion Poll: Kim Ki-hyun 41%, Ahn Cheol-soo 27%
Kim up 10%P, Ahn down 8%P
Will Kim maintain support with organizational backing?

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunju Lee] Support for Kim Ki-hyun, a candidate running for the People Power Party's March 8 party representative election, is on the rise again following the controversy over the pro-Yoon (pro-Yoon Suk-yeol) faction's 'fake Yoon-shim (尹心, President Yoon Suk-yeol's intention).' As joint regional speeches by candidates begin, there is an expectation of vote mobilization known as organizational votes, making it highly likely that Kim, backed by the party mainstream, will maintain his upward momentum for the time being.

On the 14th, according to a survey conducted by the Korea Public Opinion Research Institute (KOPRA) commissioned by Goseongguk TV from February 11 to 12, among 2,001 nationwide respondents aged 18 and over, 861 were People Power Party supporters (with a 95% confidence interval). The suitability ratings for the next party representative candidates showed Kim at 41% and Ahn Cheol-soo at 27%.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The support rates for Kim and Ahn exceed the margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points. Compared to the same survey conducted on January 29-30 before the candidate pool was narrowed down to four through a cut-off, Kim's support increased by 10 percentage points from 31%, while Ahn's dropped by 8 percentage points from 35%.

In a hypothetical runoff poll, Kim also ranked first outside the margin of error, leading Ahn with 52% to 42%. In the previous survey, Ahn led with 51% to Kim's 43%. This survey was conducted entirely via an automated response system (wireless RDD) with a response rate of 2.4%. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.

Ahn's support surged after former lawmakers Na Kyung-won and Yoo Seung-min announced they would not run. According to a Realmeter poll commissioned by Media Tribune conducted from January 31 to February 1 and released on February 2, among 428 People Power Party supporters, 48.9% supported Ahn in a runoff, while 44.4% supported Kim. The gap of 4.5 percentage points was within the margin of error (±4.8 percentage points). In a multi-candidate scenario asking about suitability for party representative among People Power Party supporters, Ahn ranked first with 43.3%, an increase of 9.4 percentage points from the previous survey.

However, the pro-Yoon faction criticized Ahn's 'Ahn-Yoon alliance (Ahn Cheol-soo?Yoon Suk-yeol alliance)' as "exploiting Yoon-shim," and during this process, Ahn criticized the 'Yoon core group (key associates of President Yoon Suk-yeol),' even calling the presidential office "an enemy of state governance." This appears to have caused a loss of support among President Yoon's base, leading to a sharp decline in Ahn's approval ratings.

The party representative to be elected this time will influence the nomination for next year's general election, so attention is also focused on the movement of organizational votes. For this reason, competition among party members for support is intensifying at joint speech meetings where candidates tour regions to present their platforms. At the first joint speech held yesterday in Jeju, voices chanting Kim Ki-hyun and Ahn Cheol-soo alternated. A representative from Kim Ki-hyun's campaign expressed confidence, saying, "From what we see on site, it looks certain that he will secure a majority in the first round of the party convention."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Meanwhile, on the same day, the People Power Party Central Election Commission changed the venue of the party convention from the Seoul SK Olympic Handball Gymnasium (capacity 5,000) to the Kintex in Ilsan, Goyang City, which can accommodate up to 10,000 people. Including 8,944 party delegates, about 10,000 or more people are expected to attend. Such a large number of attendees can elevate the atmosphere on site, creating a 'convention effect.' It may also influence voting intentions conducted via mobile voting. Earlier, President Yoon Suk-yeol announced last month that he would attend this party convention in person, which sparked controversy over election interference.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.