As Cheon Ha-ram Stirs Up a Storm... The 'Lee Jun-seok New Party' Forecast Gains Momentum

Yeouido Seolseolseol... Is There a Possibility of a New Party in the General Election?
Ruling Party Convention and Political Realignment as Variables... Vote Share Also a Concern

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] The candidate Cheon Ha-ram from the 'Lee Jun-seok faction' is creating a strong wave at the People Power Party (PPP) leadership election. In political circles, voices are growing that depending on Cheon’s final vote share, there is a possibility of the emergence of a 'Lee Jun-seok new party.' Former PPP leader Lee Jun-seok has previously drawn a line against the new party speculation, but if his influence within the party is confirmed through the leadership election, there is speculation that the formation of a new party could become possible in connection with variables such as the upcoming 'nomination turmoil.'

Former National Intelligence Service Director Park Ji-won said on the 14th on 'Kim Eo-jun’s News Factory,' "Because a considerable wave was caused by former leader Lee in the primary, if Kim Ki-hyun becomes the leader and carries out a nomination purge, this will lead to a conservative party split," adding, "Then the Lee Jun-seok and Yoo Seung-min party could become the leading conservative party, and the 'Yoon Seok-yeol party' could fall to the second party."

Park’s forecast is based on the premise that "President Yoon will exert influence over next year’s general election nominations and include many former prosecutors on the nomination list."

He emphasized, "If Kim becomes the leader, President Yoon will make all nominations for his own people. He will bring in prosecutors and lead the political situation after the general election as a completely 'Yoon Seok-yeol party.' If former lawmakers Na Kyung-won, Yoo Seung-min, or lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo become party leaders, he thinks he will face a lame-duck period, so he is trying to create his own party." This is speculation about a so-called 'nomination massacre.'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Chowonjin, leader of the Our Republican Party, who predicted a mass defection from the PPP and the formation of a new party, also bases this on the 'nomination massacre' and Cheon’s high vote share. On the previous day’s YTN program 'News King Park Ji-hoon,' he predicted that if Cheon Ha-ram from the 'Lee Jun-seok faction' receives over 20% support, a mass defection could occur. Cheon is currently ranking in the top three with double-digit support in multiple opinion polls.

He said, "If the support rate exceeds 20%, even if it falls, it still shows significant influence," and added, "Looking at the actions of the Yoon core associates (Yoon Seok-yeol’s key figures) and the presidential office’s interference in party affairs, a nomination massacre is inevitably going to happen."

The 'nomination massacre' is actually the flip side of 'reform nominations.' Every general election, regardless of party, strategic nominations of political newcomers for personnel renewal become a hot topic. About 30-40% of incumbent lawmakers are subject to replacement. Because of this, incumbent lawmakers always express dissatisfaction with the nomination results. If, as some speculate, many former prosecutors and Blue House officials receive nominations ahead of next year’s general election, dissatisfaction among incumbent lawmakers could explode.

However, former leader Lee previously dismissed the possibility of forming a new party, saying "there is none." In August last year on KBS radio, when asked by the host if forming a new party was part of his future plans, he flatly said "no," and rather responded, "Others might form a new party." This overlaps with recent speculation raised by lawyer Shin Pyeong, known as President Yoon’s mentor, about President Yoon’s possible defection from the party.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.