After Round 1 of the Ruling Party Leadership Election... Key Points to Watch in Round 2

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] The People Power Party's national convention is filtering out smaller candidates through a preliminary cutoff and moving on to the main election. The first round has ended, and the full-fledged second round begins this weekend. Let's take a look at the key points to watch in the diverse second round, including joint speeches and TV debates.

Will the Rise of the Lee Jun-seok Faction Continue?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The biggest highlight of this preliminary cutoff is the participation of figures from the 'Lee Jun-seok faction.' Candidate Cheon Ha-ram announced his candidacy just before registering as a party leader candidate, yet quickly secured a spot among the 'Big 3' in multiple opinion polls and was included among the four candidates in this preliminary cutoff. A political newcomer outside the National Assembly surpassed incumbent heavyweights with 4 to 5 terms. Lee Jun-seok's influence played a significant role in this. Not only did he encourage Cheon to run, but he also supported him through social media and media interviews. The fact that the supreme council and youth supreme council candidates he supported passed the preliminary cutoff also hints at his influence.

Watching how far the 'Lee Jun-seok faction' wave will continue is also a key point. In a recent interview with BBS, Cheon stated that his goal is a 60% vote share. This figure is higher than the vote share recorded by former leader Lee in 2021. A surge from the Lee Jun-seok faction is also expected in the supreme council election. If even one of candidates Heo Eun-ah or Kim Yong-tae becomes a supreme council member, it will confirm former leader Lee's influence within the party. Among the youth supreme council candidates, it will be worth watching whether candidate Lee Gi-in can defeat Jang Ye-chan, a strong 'Yun-sim (Yoon's heart)' candidate.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Competition Between Ahn Cheol-soo and Kim Ki-hyun... Who Will Become Party Leader?

Despite the Lee Jun-seok faction's momentum, the 'two-strong' structure remains powerful. Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, who rose to first place in opinion polls following former lawmaker Na Kyung-won's withdrawal, has been neck and neck with candidate Kim Ki-hyun amid conflicts with pro-Yoon factions and Na's support for Kim. If Na, who holds sway over conservative voters, fully supports Kim in the main election, Kim's momentum is expected to rise.

On the other hand, Ahn still has the 'metropolitan area coalition.' The logic is that to win in the metropolitan area, lawmakers representing metropolitan constituencies must be positioned in party leadership. Candidate Yoon Sang-hyun, who was eliminated in the cutoff, hinted at supporting Ahn by saying, "I will do everything I can for the metropolitan area victory in next year's general election." Attention is on whether Ahn can overcome setbacks such as leaked preliminary voting rates and reclaim first place.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Will a Runoff Vote Really Take Place?

The main election, the second round of the national convention, has begun, but the 'final third round' remains. That is the runoff vote. The runoff system, introduced after the party leadership changed the election rules, requires a runoff between the first and second place candidates if no candidate achieves a majority in the main election. Candidates Kim, Ahn, and Cheon each confidently claim they will secure a majority in the first round, but with about a month left until the convention, no one can predict the outcome.

If no majority winner emerges and the runoff vote proceeds, the alliances between the third and fourth place candidates and the top two candidates will be a spectacle. Cheon has stated he will not ally with Ahn even if the runoff occurs, but if he fails to create the expected surge, an alliance with one of the top two candidates will be inevitable. Considering that he advocates a 'non-Yoon' stance, it is likely he will side with Ahn, who has a less pro-Yoon image. On the other hand, candidate Hwang Kyo-ahn, given his main support base, is more likely to assist Kim in the runoff vote.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.