Fight, Fight, and Fight Again... New Year Political Watchpoints

2023 Yeouido National Assembly Outlook
People Power Party Convention, Lee Jae-myung Judicial Risks,

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] This year, the political sphere is expected to face a turbulent period. Not only the relations between the ruling and opposition parties but also factional conflicts within each party may intensify. Unlike years with no elections early in a new administration’s term, which are usually times to accelerate reform drives, considering the current political landscape, conflicts may escalate ahead of next year’s general parliamentary elections.

Political experts identified the most important points in this year’s political arena as 1) the People Power Party’s national convention, 2) the judicial risks facing Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, and 3) political reforms such as electoral district restructuring.

Who will hold the ruling party’s nomination rights in next year’s general election?

First, the People Power Party’s national convention scheduled for March 8 this year is expected to be the biggest event within the ruling party in the first half of the year. This convention will decide the new party leadership that will control the nomination rights for next year’s (2024) general election, making it a matter of intense interest. On the other hand, it also signifies that President Yoon Suk-yeol will be primarily evaluated by party members before the general election.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Candidates who have declared their intention to run or are expected to soon include lawmakers Kwon Seong-dong, Kim Ki-hyun, Ahn Cheol-soo, Yoon Sang-hyun, Cho Kyung-tae, former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, Na Kyung-won, vice chairperson of the Low Birthrate and Aging Society Committee, and former party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn. There are also speculations that cabinet members such as Minister of Unification Kwon Young-se, Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong, and Minister of Justice Han Dong-hoon might be drafted. While many candidates present themselves as pro-Yoon figures supporting the president, former lawmaker Yoo emphasizes a ruling party that "speaks its mind" and voices criticism of President Yoon’s administration.

The current party leadership contest centers on Yoon’s intention, known as Yoon-sim (尹心), representing the president’s will. Although Yoo has low support among People Power Party loyalists, his high approval ratings in general public polls mean he could challenge for party leadership and cause upheaval.

Will Lee Jae-myung’s judicial risks lead to opposition division?

Lee’s judicial risks are also a variable. Early this year, Lee is expected to be summoned for investigation by prosecutors over allegations related to donations to Seongnam FC. Given the ongoing extensive prosecution investigations targeting Lee, concerns are rising that these judicial risks could materialize in the first half of this year.

Lee’s judicial risks could act as a variable within the Democratic Party and in overall parliamentary operations. Within the Democratic Party, there are voices of dissatisfaction regarding the risk that Lee’s personal judicial issues could escalate into a party crisis. Although expressed in mild terms, some party members have publicly mentioned "leaving the party" as a possibility if the crisis becomes real. On January 28, Democratic lawmaker Lee Won-wook stated, "No matter how low the party’s approval rating is, despite the Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s poor performance, the Democratic Party’s support cannot catch up with the People Power Party’s. If the cause is judged to be Lee’s judicial risks, demands for leaving the party are possible."

So far, Lee’s leadership has not faced a direct crisis because no smoking gun (decisive evidence) has emerged regarding his judicial risks, the Democratic Party’s support rate has been maintained, and Lee’s loyal supporters remain solid. However, if the judicial risks materialize, concerns within the party will grow, and the party’s stagnant or declining approval ratings could create fissures leading to internal division. Additionally, controversies over a "shielding parliament" to protect Lee from judicial risks are expected to influence parliamentary operations. This atmosphere has been evident since the convening of the January extraordinary session.

Without cooperation, there is no golden time for reform

Although the second year of the new administration and a year without elections are considered an optimal time for reform, severe political struggles are also anticipated. President Yoon has expressed his intention to pursue three major reforms focusing on labor, pensions, and education. However, these broad reforms, which require extensive social consensus and legislation, are considered difficult to achieve without bipartisan cooperation.

Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, predicted, "This year is likely to become a confrontational political situation where the two major parties fiercely compete over the outcome of the general election in the year after next." He added, "In theory, this year could be the golden time for reform, but reviewing last year’s situation, the ruling party seems reluctant to engage in dialogue with the opposition. Looking at the recent government task review meeting, (President Yoon) intends to focus on policy through the cabinet and appeal directly to the public." He further forecasted, "Depending on who becomes the People Power Party leader, President Yoon is likely to strengthen his policy stance, and the Democratic Party, facing judicial risks, will enter survival mode and fight strongly."

Regarding President Yoon’s reforms, Um analyzed, "Many parts require legislation, so this year should be seen as a time to strengthen the government’s policy stance, with the ruling party aiming to become the majority after the general election to complete reforms."

Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s Department of Political Science and Diplomacy predicted, "Regardless of the outcomes of the ruling party’s national convention or Lee’s judicial risks, groups disadvantaged in the political arena may attempt realignments if they judge that remaining in their parties is no longer beneficial."

Electoral reform that changes the very grammar of politics

Political reform is also one of the biggest concerns in the political sphere. Currently, the National Assembly is operating the Special Committee on Political Reform with a deadline of April 30. The committee is discussing amendments including abolishing the semi-proportional representation system and reverting to the previous parallel system, measures to prevent satellite parties, increasing the proportion of proportional representation seats, and introducing medium- and large-sized electoral districts.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Although the specific institutional design of political reform remains a variable, there are expectations that political realignments may increase. Considering a series of environmental factors, it is predicted that centrifugal forces (forces pushing outward) rather than centripetal forces (forces pulling together) will accelerate within the political sphere.

Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice, predicted, "Depending on the outcome of the Special Committee on Political Reform, institutional changes such as the introduction of medium-large electoral districts or a mixed-member proportional representation system could occur, which would significantly change the political landscape." He added, "Even if parties cannot openly create satellite parties as in the last general election, if the electoral reform changes the structure to favor small parties that can function as satellite parties, successive party formations could continue."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.