"It is advantageous to buy dividend-uncertain stocks at the closing price and sell them on the ex-dividend date"

Stocks with uncertain dividends: buy at today's closing price and sell on ex-dividend date (28th)
For non-dividend stocks, buy at the opening price on the ex-dividend date

[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Yoon-joo] An investment opinion has emerged that adjusting the timing of purchases depending on whether dividends are paid a day before the ex-dividend date can increase returns. Although there is a dividend consensus, it is explained that buying at the closing price on the day before the ex-dividend date is more advantageous for stocks with uncertain dividend payments, while buying at the opening price on the ex-dividend date is better for stocks unlikely to pay dividends.

The ex-dividend date refers to the day when the right to receive dividends disappears. This year's ex-dividend date is the 28th. To secure shareholder rights such as dividends for companies with December fiscal year-end, stocks must be held until the 27th.

On the 27th, Kim Jong-young, a researcher at IBK Investment & Securities, said, "Although there is a fourth-quarter dividend consensus, it is advantageous to buy stocks at the closing price on the day before the ex-dividend date (the 27th) for stocks with uncertain dividend payments." Researcher Kim explained, "Although there is a dividend consensus in the market, these stocks are not evaluated as dividend stocks, so the stock price recovers quickly on the ex-dividend date, and there are cases where dividends are received later." In particular, preferred stocks showed the highest probability of stable returns when including dividends.

On the other hand, it was explained that buying at the opening price on the ex-dividend date is more advantageous for stocks unlikely to pay dividends. According to statistics from the past four years, investing at the opening price on the ex-dividend date showed that for companies without a fourth-quarter dividend consensus or those with uncertain dividend payments (companies that have not paid dividends even once in the past three years), the closing price on the ex-dividend date was more likely to be higher than the opening price.

Researcher Kim explained, "If the stock price temporarily fell on the ex-dividend date for reasons unrelated to fundamentals, such as to avoid major shareholder transfer tax, market participants tend to recognize overselling and recover." He added, "Currently, although there is a fourth-quarter dividend consensus, stocks with uncertain dividend payments include Kangwon Land, UniTest, Daehan Petrochemical, Hanwha Life, Nexen Tire, and Netmarble."

Meanwhile, over the past four years, the average return from the closing price on the day before the ex-dividend date to the closing price on the ex-dividend date for KOSPI 200 constituent stocks was around 1.1% to 1.8%. This means that if stocks are purchased at the closing price on the day before the ex-dividend date and liquidated at the closing price on the ex-dividend date, the investment return including dividends is likely to end positive (+).

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.