Over 110,000 Housing Units to Be Offered in the Seoul Metropolitan Area Next Year... 46% of Them Deferred

Half of This Year's Plan
Even Less Than Actual Sale Performance
Sale Slump to Continue Next Year... Actual Supply May Be Even Lower

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyemin] The supply volume of new apartments in the Seoul metropolitan area next year is estimated to be around 110,000 units. Compared to this year's planned volume, it has sharply decreased by 42% within a year. This is interpreted as the effect of most construction companies being unable to actively set their sales plans due to the ongoing sales freeze that started in the second half of this year and is expected to continue into next year.

According to Real Estate R114 on the 26th, 116,682 units will be supplied next year across 135 projects in the metropolitan area. This is based on private apartments (private sales and private rentals), and the sales plans of private construction companies ranked within the top 100 in construction capability evaluation were surveyed.

This year, a total of 138,826 units were supplied in the metropolitan area. This accounted for only 68% of the originally planned 202,016 units, and next year, the supply volume is expected to be even smaller than this year's actual results. Compared to this year's actual results, it is a 16% decrease, and compared to this year's plan, it is a 42% reduction. The nationwide planned supply volume for next year is 258,003 units, which is a 38% decrease compared to this year's plan, indicating an even larger decline.

By region, Seoul will see 27,781 units supplied next year. This is a slight increase compared to this year's actual results (27,048 units). This is analyzed to be due to many units planned for this year but not executed, thus carried over to next year. Seoul was originally scheduled to supply a total of 48,589 units this year. Projects such as the redevelopment of Imun 1 District in Dongdaemun-gu (3,069 units) and the reconstruction of Jamsil Jinju in Songpa-gu (2,678 units) were included in this year's supply plan but were postponed to next year.

In Gyeonggi Province, 70,521 units are expected to be supplied next year. This is about 13,000 units less than this year's actual results (83,643 units). Compared to this year's supply plan (117,415 units), it is nearly a 40% decrease. Even so, many units were postponed to next year due to setbacks in this year's supply plans. In the Gwangmyeong redevelopment areas alone, including Gwangmyeong 1R District redevelopment (3,585 units), Gwangmyeong 2R District redevelopment (3,344 units), Gwangmyeong 5R District redevelopment (2,878 units), and Gwangmyeong 4 District (1,957 units), the total exceeds 10,000 units.

In Incheon, 18,380 units are expected to be supplied next year. This is nearly a 50% decrease compared to this year's supply plan (36,012 units). Incheon is a representative area where the housing market has frozen due to falling house prices, and unsold units are rapidly increasing. Since the second half of this year, consecutive underselling has occurred, and this year's actual supply (28,135 units) was only about half of the planned volume.

The characteristic of next year's supply is that many units planned for this year were not fully supplied and have been carried over to next year. Among the planned supply volumes surveyed at the beginning of this year, 31% nationwide (131,756 units) were postponed to next year. In the metropolitan area, this figure reaches 46% (61,106 units). Most of these are scheduled for supply in the first quarter of next year, and by quarter, the metropolitan area is expected to see the highest supply in the first quarter (37,134 units). The second and third quarters are expected to have about 20,000 units each, and the fourth quarter about 15,000 units, with supply volumes predicted to decrease over time.

Choi Taesoon, chief researcher at Real Estate R114 Big Data Research Institute, said, "Due to interest rate hikes and concerns about economic recession, market uncertainty has not been resolved, so it is necessary to observe whether the planned supply volumes for next year will actually translate into real results. The supply timing is more likely to be adjusted in areas with severe unsold inventory accumulation."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.