'Indoor Mask Mandate Lift' Becomes a Foregone Conclusion... Deterioration in Quarantine Indicators Remains a Variable

Ruling Party and Government Change Mandatory to Recommended if Criteria Met
Timing of Lifting Depends on Whether the Outbreak Eases
BN.1 Variant Spread and Increase in Severe Cases
Possibility of Prolonged Winter Re-Outbreak

Jeong Jin-seok, Emergency Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, is attending the indoor mask mandate lifting party-government consultation meeting held at the National Assembly on the 22nd and delivering opening remarks. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

[Asia Economy reporters Lee Gwan-ju and Byun Seon-jin] On the 22nd, the People Power Party and the government decided at the party-government consultative meeting to change the indoor mask-wearing mandate to a recommendation if certain criteria are met. With the de facto lifting becoming a foregone conclusion, the variable is the winter resurgence of COVID-19. The domestic share of the new variant is increasing, and the number of critically ill patients is rising, so the specific timing of the lifting is expected to be determined depending on how much the scale of the outbreak decreases.

As of midnight on the day, the number of new COVID-19 cases was 75,744, an increase of 5,601 from 70,143 a week earlier (the 15th). Based on Thursday’s confirmed cases, this is the highest in 16 weeks since September 1 (81,553), continuing the upward trend of the outbreak. In particular, the number of critically ill patients hospitalized was 547, an increase of 35 from the previous day, marking the fifth consecutive day in the 500s. The number of critically ill patients also showed the highest figure in 100 days since September 13 (547).

The lifting of the indoor mask mandate is being promoted in two stages. The plan is to lift the indoor mask-wearing obligation except in medical institutions, public transportation, and social welfare facilities, and then observe the situation before lifting it in those facilities as well. However, there is room to watch regarding the timing. Criteria for lifting the indoor mask mandate will be set, and the decision will be made while monitoring key quarantine indicators accordingly. Clear lifting criteria will be disclosed at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH) meeting on the 23rd.

Accordingly, the future trend of resurgence is expected to be directly linked to the timing of the indoor mask mandate lifting. First, it is necessary to observe how much the new variant’s spread leads to an increase in confirmed cases. The share of the BN.1 variant increased to 20.6% as of the second week of December, while the detection rate of BA.5, which had been leading the previous outbreak, dropped to 52.0%. Experts believe that if the dominant strain changes next month, this outbreak could be prolonged. Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital predicted, “If this trend continues, by early January next year, BN.1 combined with BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 is expected to surpass BA.5,” adding, “The peak of the seventh wave may not come even during the Lunar New Year holiday.”

The number of critically ill patients is also an indicator to watch. The ICU bed occupancy rate was 35.9% as of the second week of December, maintaining above 30% for six consecutive weeks, which is still relatively stable. However, since the period for confirmed cases to be reflected in critically ill patients is generally considered to be two weeks, the number of critically ill patients may also increase along with the rising trend of confirmed cases. Conversely, the additional vaccination rate for winter to reduce progression to severe illness is 28.4% for those aged 60 and over and 47.9% for infection-vulnerable facilities, falling short of the government’s targets of 50% and 60%, respectively.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.