[Initial Insight] Unwavering Resolve for North Korea's Denuclearization

North Korea Fires 68 Missiles This Year, Record High
Dark Outlook for Korean Peninsula Next Year... Need to Combine Pressure and Dialogue

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] On the 18th, North Korea launched two medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) into the East Sea. This was a ballistic missile provocation one month after the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch on the 18th of last month.

It is no exaggeration to say that North Korea’s 2022 began and ended with missile launches. North Korea escalated its military provocations to the highest level, including a series of missile launches and openly threatening a nuclear preemptive strike.

This year, North Korea has fired a total of 65 ballistic missiles in 36 launches, including eight ICBM launches, and has launched cruise missiles three times, as revealed through North Korean media.

At the beginning of the year, General Secretary Kim Jong-un hinted at ending the moratorium on nuclear and ICBM launches and launched an ICBM on March 24. This marked the end of the moratorium that North Korea had voluntarily declared in April 2018 after four years and four months.

Kim Jong-un’s threats became more blatant around the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration in May. In September, at the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea enacted the ‘Nuclear Force Legislation,’ which included provisions allowing a nuclear preemptive strike against South Korea at any time based on arbitrary threat assessments.

From late September to mid-November, North Korea fired ballistic missiles and multiple rocket launchers of various ranges almost daily, citing the deployment of U.S. strategic assets and joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises as pretexts, while also scrambling numerous fighter jets to raise tensions.

The peak occurred on the 2nd of last month, when North Korea launched 25 missiles in a single day. Among these, one missile fell into the waters off Sokcho, south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the East Sea, marking the first such incident since the division of the Korean Peninsula.

The funds North Korea has invested in missile provocations are astronomical. The Korea Defense Research Institute analyzed that North Korea spent approximately $340 million to $530 million (about 442 billion to 689 billion KRW) on 61 ballistic missile launches from early this year through last month.

Despite North Korean citizens suffering from daily famine and human rights abuses, General Secretary Kim poured enormous amounts of money into missile launches.

While North Korea engaged in provocations, our government attempted to apply pressure, but with no results. Additional sanctions against North Korea through the international community were not implemented due to opposition from China and Russia. Furthermore, President Yoon’s North Korea denuclearization plan, the ‘Bold Initiative,’ also failed to gain traction. This was partly because it emphasized ‘preemptive denuclearization measures’ and did not actively seek to resume dialogue with North Korea.

North Korea rejected the ‘Bold Initiative’ proposal through the words of Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers’ Party, calling it “the height of foolishness,” and harshly criticized President Yoon, showing no interest in improving relations with the South.

The outlook for the Korean Peninsula in the coming year is also bleak. Considering North Korea’s military activities and signs at nuclear facilities this year, the possibility of a seventh nuclear test next year is high.

With General Secretary Kim having completed the legislation of nuclear weapons, next year also marks the 10th anniversary of the ‘Declaration of Permanent Nuclear State Status’ and the ‘Declaration of the Byungjin Line of Economy and Nuclear Development.’

The cooling of the Korean Peninsula situation due to North Korean military provocations is likely to deepen the new Cold War structure of ‘South Korea-U.S.-Japan VS North Korea-China-Russia.’

However, our efforts to stabilize the Korean Peninsula situation must not stop. Stability on the Korean Peninsula is directly linked to national security and the economy. Continuous and effective pressure on North Korea’s military provocations must be combined with efforts to resume dialogue.

There was a cheering phrase that gained attention during the ‘2022 Qatar World Cup’ from the Red Devils supporters. The phrase ‘What matters is an unbreakable spirit,’ abbreviated as ‘Jungkkkeokma,’ moved not only the players but also the public.

Although the international situation next year looks grim, we hope that the government and the international community will adopt the ‘Jungkkkeokma’ spirit to stabilize the Korean Peninsula situation.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.