Wasn't the 7th Wave Peak? Consecutive Record Highs... Experts Also Failed to Predict This Variable

[Asia Economy Reporter Byeon Seon-jin] This winter, the COVID-19 outbreak briefly subsided but has been recording daily highs consecutively. Experts predict that if this trend continues, the peak of the 7th wave will not be in 'late November to early December' but will be difficult to predict at least until January next year.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 14th, as of midnight the previous day, the number of new COVID-19 cases was 86,852. This is the highest number of confirmed cases in 90 days since September 14 (93,949 cases), before the 7th wave. Compared to a week ago on the 6th (77,590 cases), it increased by 9,262 cases (11.9%). The 7th wave, which began at the end of October, showed a tendency to decrease or pause entering early December, but reversed, and the number of new cases has been increasing for eight consecutive days since the 5th compared to a week ago. As of this day, the weekly average daily cases were 61,750, which is 7,811 cases (14.5%) more than the same period the previous week (November 30 to December 6), which was 53,939.

The number of critically ill patients was 460. The number of critically ill patients has remained in the 400s for 25 consecutive days since the 19th of last month. The intensive care unit bed occupancy rate is 34.7%, with 1,070 beds available. The number of deaths, which had been in the 50s, decreased by one from the previous day to 29, but considering the spread, this is likely a temporary decrease. The total number of deaths recorded in December so far is 622, a 26.7% increase compared to the same period last month (491).

Prediction of Peak in Late November to Early December Was Wrong... Why?

Experts had considered the end of November to early December, when the daily confirmed cases averaged in the low 50,000s, as the peak of the winter outbreak. This was because the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants, which hit the US and Europe hard, did not have as much impact domestically, and BA.5, which led the 6th wave, seemed to be leading the winter outbreak as well. COVID-19 mathematical modeling research teams, which predict case numbers 1-2 weeks ahead, forecasted that the cases, which were in the high 60,000s at the end of last month, would reduce to 20,000-40,000 by mid-December, two weeks later, but this prediction was off.

The reason why COVID-19 cases, which had paused at the end of November, have recently increased again is analyzed to be due to the rapid spread of the unexpected BN.1 variant (Professor Kim Woo-joo, Infectious Diseases, Korea University Guro Hospital). BN.1 is a variant derived from BA.2.75, and the updated vaccines currently used for winter vaccination, developed to respond to BA.1 and BA.4·BA.5, do not fully protect against it. This means reinfection is more likely. In fact, in the 4th week of November (20-26), reinfections accounted for 13.3% of all confirmed cases, higher than the previous week (12.1%).

As of the 3rd, the detection rate of BA.5, the dominant strain in Korea, dropped to 67.8%, while BN.1 nearly doubled from 7.3% the previous week to 13.2%. Professor Kim said, “If the detection rate of BN.1 exceeds 20% around mid-December, this variant will become the dominant strain domestically,” adding, “If this happens, the peak of the 7th wave will not come at least until January.” Considering the decrease in COVID-19 testing and the low accuracy of self-diagnosis kits, Professor Kim estimates the actual number of infections is in the mid to high 100,000s currently.

Will Indoor Mask Removal Be Delayed... “Removal Does Not Mean Taking Off Masks”

Indoor Mask Wearing Notice Displayed in Store
Photo by Yonhap News

Recently, local governments such as Daejeon and Chungnam have announced plans to lift indoor mask mandates, proposing self-rescue quarantine measures. In response, the government plans to announce a roadmap related to indoor masks by the end of this month to maintain consistency in quarantine measures. However, there is also a view that the rapid increase in confirmed cases could delay the timing of lifting indoor mask mandates. Although the direction is to lift mask-wearing indoors except in facilities used by high-risk groups, a surge in cases amid insufficient vaccination could burden the medical system, including hospital beds. However, “The lifting of the indoor mask mandate does not mean immediately taking off masks but removing the legal penalties for not wearing them” (Professor Jeong Jae-hoon, Preventive Medicine, Gachon University Gil Medical Center), so some believe it is separate from the scale of confirmed cases.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.