"27 Million Infected Yet"... Why the 'Winter Resurgence' Is Expected Until March Next Year

Health Authorities Expect Reduced Epidemic Threat as New Case Increase Stabilizes
Epidemic Size Shrinks, Peak Forecasted from Next Month to March Next Year
"Increase in Hidden Infections Part of Endemic Process"... Variant Influx Also a Variable

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] As the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in South Korea surpassed 27 million, there is a forecast that this winter's resurgence will be smaller than initially expected but will last until March next year.

According to health authorities on the 30th, as of midnight the previous day, 71,476 new COVID-19 cases were reported, bringing the total cumulative cases to 27,031,319. The number of cases on this day decreased by 1,384 compared to a week ago on the 22nd (72,860 cases) and by 1,388 compared to two weeks ago on the 15th (72,864 cases). Although the increase in new cases has slowed, the number of critically ill patients hospitalized remained at 491 for two consecutive days, approaching 500, and 41 deaths occurred in a single day.

Health authorities expect the threat from the resurgence to gradually decrease as the recent increase in cases slows down, but they believe the peak has not yet passed. Initially, it was forecasted that the peak would be reached in December with up to 200,000 new cases per day, but considering recent trends, it is analyzed that the number of cases will fluctuate moderately and increase gradually, reaching the peak between next month and March next year.

Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said on the 28th, "We do not yet believe the outbreak has reached its peak, and there are still factors causing increases," adding, "It will increase gradually and reach the peak from December to March next year."

This trend is attributed to the continued dominance of Omicron subvariants this year, which have lower fatality rates, and the vaccine's effectiveness preventing a rapid surge in cases. Most of the population has been infected with the Omicron variant at least once, and with vaccination, they have high immunity, so the scale of the seventh wave is inevitably limited.

Professor Kim Tak of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Soonchunhyang University Bucheon Hospital said, "Until now, South Korea's COVID-19 trends tended to follow other countries' cases, but recently, the patterns vary by country, making predictions difficult," and added, "After overcoming the current peak, there will no longer be situations where cases increase rapidly or the outbreak worsens."

Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine also said, "This wave is characterized by the absence of prominent new variants and the unclear scale of infections," adding, "This trend is considered part of the process of COVID-19 becoming endemic."

However, the introduction of new variants is identified as a variable that could influence future outbreak trends. The BN.1 subvariant of BA.2.75 showed a detection rate of 7.6% as of the 19th, making it the second most prevalent after the dominant BA.5. Although information on BN.1's infectivity is not yet available, experts predict it to be a variant with strong immune evasion. Health authorities expect that, since this variant is an Omicron subvariant, the currently administered updated vaccines will still be effective in preventing severe illness.

Baek Kyung-ran, commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, said, "It is a difficult time to definitively predict future outbreaks because the situation will vary depending on how and in what form variants emerge." She added, "Since Omicron subvariants have continued to appear this year and other lineages have not been prevalent, the ongoing bivalent vaccine administration is expected to be useful in controlling the outbreak," emphasizing participation in vaccination.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.