Slow Spread of the '7th Wave'... But Severe Cases Are Alarming (Comprehensive)

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Byeon Seon-jin] The seventh wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is not spreading as rapidly as expected. The average number of confirmed cases over the past week is in the 50,000 range, an increase of about 10,000 from the early November level of 40,000 when the wave began. However, the number of severe cases and deaths is comparable to the peak of the sixth wave last summer, when there were 100,000 confirmed cases.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 25th at midnight, the number of new COVID-19 cases was 53,698, with the recent weekly average at 53,668. The weekly average number of confirmed cases on the 9th, when the authorities officially declared the "7th wave" (Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Division at the Central Disease Control Headquarters), was 44,477, but it increased to 53,702 on the 16th and has since slightly decreased.

The seventh wave occurs in winter, a season prone to the "3 Cs" (closed spaces, crowded places, close-contact settings), raising concerns that the peak could reach up to 200,000 confirmed cases. However, most forecasts expect a smaller peak. Health authorities and experts predict the peak of the seventh wave to be between late November and early December. If the reproduction number, which indicates how many people one infected person infects, remains at 1.1, the number of cases next week is expected to be between 60,000 and 70,000 (according to research teams led by Professor Lee Chang-hyung of Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology and Professor Jeong Eun-ok of Konkuk University).

The problem is that the proportion of severe cases and deaths relative to confirmed cases is high. The number of critically ill patients increased by 16 to 453 on this day, marking the seventh consecutive day in the 400s. The number of deaths was recorded at 55, with the weekly average daily death toll at 50. Recent severe and death indicators are similar in scale to those seen in early to mid-August when 100,000 to 150,000 cases were reported.

This explains why the COVID-19 fatality rate, which had dropped to 0.04% in July, is expected to exceed 0.08% in November. The fatality rate in September and October was 0.07%. Professor Baek Soon-young, emeritus professor at the Catholic University School of Medicine, said, "Although the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is stable without a rapid increase, the high number of severe cases and deaths indicates that there are many hidden infections, which raises the fatality rate," adding, "The government should focus its medical resources on severe cases and death indicators."

There are concerns that the number of severe patients could exceed 500 as the peak approaches in one to two weeks. Accordingly, the government has announced plans to secure enough hospital beds to handle up to 200,000 daily confirmed cases. Since antibodies that defend against infection form two weeks after vaccination, health authorities are encouraging winter vaccinations, especially for vulnerable groups. As of midnight on this day, the vaccination rate for those aged 60 and over (based on eligible individuals) was 17.7%, and the vaccination rate for vulnerable facilities such as nursing hospitals, care facilities, and mental health promotion facilities was 20.6%. This is far below the government's goal of raising the vaccination rate to 50-60% within a month.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The vaccination rate is not rising quickly, analyzed to be due to concerns about breakthrough infections and side effects from frequent vaccinations. Regarding this, Professor Jeong Jae-hoon of Gachon University’s Department of Preventive Medicine said, "Because the infection prevention effect decreases over time, booster vaccinations are necessary," and Professor Lee Jae-gap of Hallym University’s Department of Infectious Diseases urged vaccination, stating, "There have been no reports from multiple countries of increased adverse reactions due to repeated vaccinations."

Health authorities emphasize that vaccination is necessary not only to prevent severe illness and death from infection but also to prepare for 'Long COVID' (long-term aftereffects). According to a study published in July by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and the National Health Insurance Service, involving 230,000 adults infected with COVID-19, the vaccinated group (with two doses) showed 52% and 60% lower risks of acute myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke, respectively, compared to the unvaccinated group.

Jeong Ki-seok, head of the COVID-19 Special Response Team, said at the 9th meeting of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee on the 24th, "The number of severe COVID-19 patients is still increasing, and considering the seasonal factor of winter, the epidemic situation must be analyzed carefully," adding, "To dispel distrust in vaccine effectiveness and anxiety about adverse reactions, the government must provide objective and accurate information."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.