"China Reaches Point of No Recovery from COVID-19... Difficult to Ease Zero-COVID Policy"

Expert: "Quarantine Has Reached an Irreversible State"
Regions Accounting for 19% of GDP Face Economic Impact

On the 23rd of last month, a security guard is conducting PCR tests on residents in a locked-down apartment in Beijing, China.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] As the daily number of COVID-19 cases in China reached an all-time high, an analysis suggests that China's quarantine situation has reached a point of no return.

According to Chinese quarantine authorities on the 24th, the daily new COVID-19 cases in China reached 29,754 the previous day, marking a record high. This surpasses the previous peak of 28,973 cases recorded in April when the COVID-19 spread was at its highest.

Guangdong Province reported the highest number with 854 cases, though this was 250 fewer than the previous day. Chongqing City reported 7,548 cases, an increase of 682 from the previous day, and Sichuan Province (1,274 cases) also saw an increase of 54 cases. The capital Beijing reported 1,622 cases, 146 more than the previous day. New infections in Xinjiang (961 cases) and Hubei (946 cases) also approached 1,000, maintaining an upward trend. As the number of COVID-19 infections rises, lockdown measures are being strengthened across various regions in China.

In this regard, experts have expressed concerns that achieving zero COVID without large-scale city lockdowns has become impossible. Larry Hu, Macquarie's Chief China Economist, told the US economic media CNBC, "China may have already passed the point of no return," adding, "Without strict measures like the Shanghai lockdown implemented in April, it is unlikely that China will achieve zero COVID again."

He continued, "There were signs that Chinese authorities would lift lockdowns and reopen within six to nine months," but noted, "There will likely be several reversals before a final reopening decision is made."

Since the 16th, the number of new community COVID-19 cases in China has remained in the 20,000 range. In Beijing, two deaths were reported for the first time in six months, and one death each was reported in Henan Province and Sichuan Province due to COVID-19. In response, Shanghai has banned people from outside the city from entering public places for five days, and Beijing has strengthened quarantine measures by requiring a negative PCR test certificate within 48 hours to access public places.

As city lockdown measures for quarantine become inevitable, there are also predictions that the Chinese economy will continue to deteriorate. Ting Lu, Nomura Securities' Chief China Economist, cited internal indicators showing that regions accounting for 19.1% of China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have been negatively affected by government controls due to COVID-19. This figure has increased by more than 4 percentage points from 15.6% on the 14th, just a few days ago.

Earlier, in mid-April when the COVID-19 spread peaked, regions accounting for 21.2% of GDP were economically impacted by city lockdown measures.

Nomura Securities estimated that as of the 21st, approximately 412 million people in mainland China were affected by lockdown measures. Economist Ting Lu estimated, "Lockdowns or controls in China are being implemented largely without public announcements," and added, "Currently, the Chongqing area appears to be experiencing the most severe regional lockdown."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.