Tokayev Pledges Anti-Corruption, Likely to Regain Power in Kazakhstan... Distancing from Russia (Comprehensive)

Resignation from Remaining Term, Early Election Gamble
Breaking Free from Nazarbayev's Influence for Independent Reform
Departure from Pro-Russian Policy, Intensifying US-China-Russia Rivalry

Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is casting his ballot at a polling station in Almaty on the 20th (local time). Astana, Kazakhstan=AP·Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The re-election of Kazakhstan's incumbent President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in the presidential election has sent ripples through the Central Asian geopolitical landscape. As President Tokayev is expected to shift from the previous pro-Russian stance and engage in a balancing diplomatic act among the United States, China, and Russia, the competition among major powers is anticipated to intensify.

According to TASS news agency on the 20th (local time), in the Kazakhstan presidential election held that day, President Tokayev secured over 80% of the vote according to exit polls, making his victory almost certain. The Open Society Research Institute, a Kazakhstani polling organization, reported that Tokayev received 82.45% of the votes. An exit poll conducted by the Public Policy Research Institute of the ruling Amanat Party also showed Tokayev’s vote share at 85.52%.

With the exit poll results overwhelmingly in his favor, President Tokayev is expected to be comfortably re-elected. The Central Election Commission of Kazakhstan announced that 69.43% of approximately 12 million eligible voters cast their ballots that day. Preliminary voting results are scheduled to be announced on the 21st.

This early presidential election was held following a constitutional amendment proposal submitted by President Tokayev to the parliament in September. At that time, Tokayev proposed abolishing the existing five-year renewable term system and switching to a single seven-year term system, declaring that he would forgo his remaining term, originally set to end in December 2024, to hold an early election.

Notably, President Tokayev ran as the ruling party’s candidate in this early election, pledging political modernization based on three principles of fairness: a fair state, a fair economy, and a fair society.

The reason he emphasized fairness and took a gamble in this early election is interpreted as an effort to dispel the image of being the successor to former long-term dictator Nursultan Nazarbayev, who ruled for 30 years, and to gain independent political momentum for reforms.

According to the British BBC, Tokayev, who served as foreign minister and prime minister during the Nazarbayev administration, came to power through the election held after Nazarbayev’s resignation in June 2019.

However, even after Nazarbayev stepped down, he remained chairman of Kazakhstan’s Security Council, influencing government appointments behind the scenes and conducting unilateral diplomatic actions, leading to criticism that Tokayev was a "puppet." With this early election victory, President Tokayev is expected to sever ties with former President Nazarbayev and lead an independent reform agenda.

In particular, unlike former President Nazarbayev, who consistently pursued pro-Russian diplomacy, Tokayev, who has emphasized balanced diplomacy, is expected to bring significant changes to Kazakhstan’s foreign policy upon his re-election. Last month, Kazakhstan publicly declared its refusal to side with Russia in the Ukraine war by rejecting Russia’s demand to expel the Ukrainian ambassador stationed in Kazakhstan.

President Tokayev also declared distancing from Russia when announcing the constitutional amendment in September. According to CNN, Tokayev pointed out, "It is acknowledged that there have been numerous fraudulent elections so far, and I am aware that certain countries have interfered in our internal affairs and manipulated the process." CNN reported that this reference to foreign election interference likely alludes to Russia’s financial support to former President Nazarbayev during the 2015 Kazakhstan presidential election.

As Russia’s influence is expected to wane in Kazakhstan going forward, a fierce competition among the United States, China, and Russia is anticipated. Since 2016, China has invested over $40 billion (approximately 54 trillion KRW) in Kazakhstan, which serves as a central hub for the Belt and Road Initiative (land and maritime Silk Road), funding more than 50 cooperative projects including railways, gas pipelines, and oil pipelines.

In the United States, Deputy Secretary of State Donald Lu visited Kazakhstan on the 6th and pledged support for sustainable development in Central Asia, signaling a more active effort to counterbalance Chinese and Russian influence.

The U.S. foreign affairs magazine Diplomat noted, "Tokayev is leveraging Kazakhstan’s geopolitical position to conduct balancing diplomacy among the United States, China, and Russia," adding, "How he manages the pressure from China and Russia, who aim to block U.S. expansion, will be a key challenge in his next term."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.