[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Did North Korea Succeed in ICBM?

Considering the maximum altitude, normal flight is estimated after 2-stage separation
Whether atmospheric reentry technology is developed remains uncertain

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] On the 18th, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), drawing attention to whether it has succeeded in developing an ICBM. If North Korea has succeeded in developing an ICBM, it would possess the capability to strike the entire U.S. mainland, but experts consider this uncertain.

On the day, the Joint Chiefs of Staff announced, “The ICBM launched by North Korea around 10:15 a.m. from the Sunan area in Pyongyang was detected at a maximum altitude of 6,100 km and a flight distance of 1,000 km.”

The military authorities are analyzing that the missile launched on this day was a re-launch of the Hwasong-17, which was launched on the 3rd but failed to fly normally after the second stage separation. The maximum speed was detected at Mach 22, 22 times the speed of sound, indicating that the basic specifications of an ICBM were met. It was launched at a high angle, reaching an altitude of 6,100 km, and if launched at a normal angle (30?45 degrees), the range is estimated to be over 15,000 km. This is a range capable of striking the entire U.S. mainland.

Considering that the ICBM reached a maximum altitude of 6,100 km, it is presumed that it also flew normally after the second stage separation. However, whether it successfully re-entered the atmosphere has not yet been confirmed. The military and intelligence authorities are withholding comments, stating they are “analyzing” whether this Hwasong-17 was ultimately successful.

North Korea has launched the Hwasong-17 several times until the 3rd, but it has generally been evaluated as a ‘failure.’ This is mainly due to the atmospheric re-entry vehicle (RV) technology.

There are differing views on whether North Korea has secured re-entry vehicle technology (including warhead protection technology) that prevents the warhead from exploding despite the extreme heat of 6,000 to 7,000 degrees Celsius generated during missile re-entry into the atmosphere. Re-entry vehicle technology refers to fairing manufacturing technology. It is a technology possessed only by a few nuclear-armed countries such as the U.S., China, Russia, and India.

The fairing’s outer shell material is primarily carbon fiber. It is a material made by compressing charcoal at high strength, with strength comparable to diamond. Warheads that have this material and technology stably applied are conical in shape. The conical warhead reduces frictional heat during atmospheric re-entry and ensures the warhead falls accurately at the target point in a consistent direction. The special materials required to make re-entry vehicles are designated as prohibited items that North Korea cannot import. It is presumed that North Korea has secretly imported these materials and technologies through third countries.

However, based on the detected altitude, speed, and flight time, experts evaluate that ‘considerable progress’ has been made, and the U.S. is expected to further strengthen its missile defense (MD) network.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced on the 7th that it will establish six new flight restriction zones around Alaska. This expands the flight restriction zones in the Alaska area where North Korean ICBM detection radars are installed, strengthening missile monitoring posture against North Korea.

On the 27th (local time), the U.S. Department of Defense stated in the released National Defense Strategy (NDS), Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), and Missile Defense Review (MDR) that North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities are continuously increasing, and the corresponding threat is growing. In particular, the U.S. emphasized ground-based midcourse defense (GMD) to intercept ICBMs at the midcourse phase for homeland defense and stated efforts to improve its capabilities. The GMD system consists of interceptor systems deployed in Alaska and California, space- and ground-based sensors, and an integrated command and control (C2) system. It also mentioned air and missile defense systems in the Indo-Pacific region and cooperation with allied countries such as South Korea, Japan, and Australia.

Accordingly, missile information sharing and missile defense exercises among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan are expected to be further strengthened. The leaders of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan held a trilateral summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on the 13th and adopted a joint statement expressing their intention to share North Korean missile warning information in real time to enhance each country’s detection and assessment capabilities against threats posed by North Korean missiles.

Furthermore, public opinion for additional deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) at the U.S. military base in Seongju, South Korea, is expected to spread. Former senior U.S. officials have urged considering additional THAAD deployment in South Korea if China fails to deter North Korean provocations.

Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Advisor, stated on the 11th (local time) that if North Korea continues on the path of provocations, the U.S. will have no choice but to strengthen its military and security presence in the region, encompassing troop deployments and weapons stationing and deployment.

Meanwhile, North Korea first showcased the Hwasong-17 at the military parade commemorating the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party in October 2020. The Hwasong-17, mounted on a massive 11-axle, 22-wheel transporter erector launcher (TEL), is estimated to be 22 to 24 meters long, earning the nickname ‘monster ICBM,’ the longest in the world. The Hwasong-17 is being developed as a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capable of carrying 2 to 3 nuclear warheads.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.