Next Chinese Defense Minister Becomes a Gauge for Resuming US-China Military Talks

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[Asia Economy Senior Reporter Cho Young-shin] There is a prospect that the suspended military exchanges between the U.S. and China could resume. Since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last August, China has completely halted military exchanges with the U.S., raising concerns about accidental military clashes in the Taiwan Strait.

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However, the U.S. sanctions on Li Xiangfu, the current head of the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and the nominee for China's next Minister of National Defense, pose an obstacle. The lifting of sanctions on Li is a prerequisite for high-level military communication between the two countries, drawing attention to the U.S. decision.

The state-run Global Times reported on the 16th in an article titled "Military exchanges between China and the U.S. could resume after the meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden," stating that military exchanges may be restarting and that working-level contacts might already be underway.

Global Times cited experts saying that amid escalating tensions between China and the U.S., the first face-to-face meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden took place, and that resuming military dialogue would help reduce accidental risks.

Zhou Bo, a researcher at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy, emphasized the urgent need for military communication and dialogue between the two countries. Zhou explained, "There are many issues to discuss and negotiate in the future, such as maintaining safe distances between naval vessels in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea," adding, "Only communication for risk management can prevent the worst-case scenario."

While Global Times mentioned the necessity of military exchanges between the two countries, it also set a condition: the red line regarding China's internal affairs, including Taiwan, must be respected.

Lu Xiang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stressed the red line, saying, "The U.S. must translate words into actions, and if there is no consistency between words and deeds, military exchanges between the two countries are meaningless." Since China has consistently upheld its principle on core interests (Taiwan), it means clearly distinguishing between what can and cannot be discussed.

It was also argued that the U.S. sanctions on Li, the head of the CMC Equipment Development Department, must be lifted for the resumption of U.S.-China military dialogue. Li is the nominee for China's next Minister of National Defense. In September 2018, the U.S. State Department imposed sanctions on then-Major General Li, holding him responsible for purchasing Russian SU-35 fighter jets and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, freezing his assets within U.S. jurisdiction and prohibiting foreign exchange transactions. Li is the first figure in Chinese military history to be sanctioned by the U.S.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) also pointed out related details. SCMP reported that current Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe will retire in March next year, and Li is effectively nominated as his successor. It also reminded readers that the U.S. imposed sanctions on Li in 2018.

SCMP noted that if high-level military talks between the U.S. and China resume, an awkward situation could arise where U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin would have to sit down with Li, who is under U.S. sanctions. It added that Austin might even hold talks with Minister Wei, who is set to retire in March next year.

Zhang Tuosheng, a researcher at the Chinese National Defense University, said, "Although President Xi and President Biden had a positive meeting, there is a significant difference between China's and the U.S.'s approaches to the Taiwan issue," diagnosing that "both countries hope for guardrails to prevent military clashes in the Taiwan Strait."

Professor Zhu Feng of Nanjing University predicted, "Whether sanctions on Li are lifted will be a gauge of future U.S.-China military relations." He added, "The U.S. must work with China to find solutions to the Russia-Ukraine issue, the Taiwan issue, and the North Korea issue," emphasizing, "Trust between the militaries of the two countries is more important than ever." He further stated that the U.S. will inevitably have to lift sanctions on Li.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.