[G20 Summit] Biden-Xi... Stronger Superpowers, First Face-to-Face Meeting Today

Face-to-Face Meeting in Bali, Indonesia on the 14th
Resuming Dialogue Cut Off After US Pelosi's Visit to Taiwan
Substantive Negotiations Difficult Considering Political Situation

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Kim Hyun-jung, New York=Special Correspondent Jo Seul-gi] U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to hold their first face-to-face meeting on the 14th (local time) on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. Key agenda items are expected to include bilateral trade and economic issues, the Taiwan issue, the Ukraine war, and North Korea's nuclear program.

This summit is highly anticipated as it marks the full resumption of dialogue between the two countries, which had effectively stalled since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in early August. Notably, President Xi secured a third term at last month's 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and President Biden recently solidified a stable foundation for foreign policy over the next two years after the Democratic Party maintained its majority in the Senate in the midterm elections, drawing significant attention to the meeting.

President Biden also indicated his intention to use this meeting as a turning point to ease tensions between the two countries, stating that he prefers competition over conflict with China.

◆ U.S. and China Expected to Discuss Sensitive Issues Including North Korea's Nuclear Program = According to the White House, the two leaders are scheduled to meet at 5:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. Korean time) at a hotel in Bali. The meeting is expected to provide an opportunity to gauge each other's positions on issues such as semiconductor export controls, economic sanctions against China, trade frictions, human rights issues within China, the Taiwan issue, and the Ukraine war.

The White House stated that no joint statement will be issued, but emphasized that candid dialogue between the two leaders will take place, highlighting "efforts to cooperate where interests align." Rather than focusing on concrete outcomes, the meeting is expected to serve as a platform for the leaders to identify 'red lines' and lay the groundwork for bilateral relations through direct communication.

President Biden also told reporters in Cambodia on the 13th that regarding the agenda of the U.S.-China summit, "We need to understand where the red lines are and what the most important tasks are for the next two years," adding, "We will have an honest conversation."

China's state-run media Global Times noted the U.S. mentioning red lines, interpreting it as "a call to avoid extreme confrontation or clashes, albeit expressed differently." Analysts believe that regardless of the content of the dialogue, the summit itself will help ease escalating tensions.

Given growing global recession concerns and the timing after both countries' political events?the midterm elections and the Party Congress?there is analysis that efforts to ease tensions may focus on economic issues. However, regarding Taiwan, it is already considered a red line for China. Since President Xi stated at the Party Congress that the use of force cannot be ruled out, conflict with the U.S. is inevitable.

Immediately after confirming the summit schedule, the U.S. announced it would increase U.S. troops stationed in Northeast Asia if North Korea continues provocations, pressuring China on its role in the North Korean nuclear issue. This marks the first time since President Biden's inauguration that the North Korean nuclear issue, which had been rarely mentioned in five previous video or phone calls, is raised early on the agenda. This is interpreted as a request to China to restrain North Korea's provocations amid concerns over an imminent seventh nuclear test by North Korea, which China has been wary of due to the potential expansion of U.S. military presence in Northeast Asia.

A senior U.S. official recently stated regarding threats from North Korea, "We conveyed that if North Korea continues down this path, it means the U.S. will have to strengthen its military and security presence in the region," and urged, "It is in China's interest to play a constructive role in deterring North Korea's worst actions."

Accordingly, attention is focused on whether President Xi, who has just begun his third term, will reject U.S. pressure considering relations with North Korea, or whether he will draw a line on North Korea's nuclear test to smoothly manage U.S.-China relations linked to economic and Taiwan issues. Some speculate that President Xi may express a negative stance on North Korea's nuclear test, citing his opposition to Russia's use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine during a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier this month. There is also a possibility that China will take on a more active mediator role through special envoy visits to North Korea following the Party Congress.

In 2011, then Vice President Xi Jinping and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden are meeting and greeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. (Source=China Daily)

◆ Low Expectations for Substantial Outcomes = Presidents Biden and Xi have met face-to-face several times before. During the Obama administration in 2011, then-Vice President Biden and then-Vice Chairman Xi met eight times. They held talks and meals in Chengdu, Beijing, and spent time in remote mountainous areas of Sichuan Province, building a close relationship. They also met when Xi visited the U.S. as a state guest in 2015 after becoming China's top leader.

However, the current situation is different. The prevailing view is that it is unlikely that the sensitive issues will find appropriate solutions or that the cooling-off period between the two countries will end following the Bali summit.

After securing a third term and launching his third leadership team, President Xi has already made tough remarks at the Party Congress, stating that the use of force cannot be ruled out to prevent Taiwan independence. President Biden, who narrowly avoided an early lame-duck crisis, is unlikely to show leniency in his approach to China if he seeks re-election.

Strengthened by the midterm elections, President Biden is expected to exert comprehensive pressure on President Xi during the talks on economic and security issues, human rights, and the Taiwan issue. There are also forecasts that he will strongly demand China's role regarding the North Korean issue, with a nuclear test believed to be imminent. President Biden declared at the East Asia Summit (EAS), which includes ASEAN countries, that the U.S. will compete responsibly with China, and increased pressure on China in bilateral and trilateral meetings with South Korea and Japan.

CNN assessed, "The optimism and positivity between the U.S. and China from 10 years ago have turned into mutual suspicion and hostility," adding, "The U.S.-China relationship, strained across trade, technology, geopolitics, and ideology, is at its worst in decades." It further noted, "Expectations for the summit are low," diagnosing that "the U.S. and China, trapped in intensifying great power competition, differ on all major issues including Taiwan, the Ukraine war, North Korea, and technology transfer." The only conclusion expected from the summit is "limited hope."

China is expressing its desire for the 'normalization' of bilateral relations through this summit by demanding a change in the U.S. stance. On the 11th, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at a regular briefing when asked about China's expectations for the summit, "The U.S. should face China, properly manage differences, promote mutual interests and cooperation, avoid misunderstandings and misjudgments, and return China-U.S. relations to a healthy and stable development track," emphasizing, "We hope the U.S. will truly play a responsible role in maintaining global stability and development based on the spirit of mutual respect."

He also highlighted the difference in views with the U.S. by emphasizing China's friendly relations with Russia, which invaded Ukraine. On the same day, when asked by a reporter from Russia's state-run TASS news agency about President Biden's comment that he does not consider Sino-Russian relations to have developed into an alliance, spokesperson Zhao replied, "The relationship between China and Russia is very solid. As each other's largest neighbors and comprehensive strategic partners, they adhere to the principles of non-alignment, non-confrontation, and non-targeting toward third parties and have developed cooperation."

Meanwhile, the summit is expected to last more than two hours. President Biden is scheduled to brief the U.S. media and others on the outcome of the meeting at 9:30 p.m. (10:30 p.m. Korean time) on the same day after the talks.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.