[New York Diary] What Is Happening in the 'Blue State' of New York?

Governor Hochul of New York (left) and U.S. President Joe Biden
[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] New York State in the United States is considered one of the representative 'Blue States' dominated by the Democratic Party. Following Andrew Cuomo, a 'prominent politician' who resigned amid sexual harassment allegations, Kathy Hochul, who became governor, is also a member of the Democratic Party. And in the U.S., the 'incumbent premium' is significant during elections. This is the background for why there was little interest in the New York State election where they currently reside ahead of the November 8 midterm elections that will reshape American political power.

In New York State, the Republican Party has not won at the state level since 2002. Perhaps because of this, New York was a place where the Democratic leadership, while early on worried about a potential defeat in the November election, did not actually worry. However, the New York gubernatorial election, which was expected to be an 'easy win' for the Democrats, has recently become fiercely competitive.

The challenger against incumbent Governor Hochul is Republican New York State Assemblyman Lee Zeldin. In a Siena College poll released three weeks before the election, the gap in support between the two candidates narrowed from 17 percentage points the previous month to 11 points. In a Quinnipiac University poll, the gap was only 4 percentage points. In fact, in Upstate New York, Zeldin's support was 52%, leading Governor Hochul (44%) by 8 percentage points.

The Republican Party's strong comeback in New York, which was considered an 'already caught fish,' has clearly unsettled the Democrats. This is why President Joe Biden hurriedly visited Upstate New York a few days ago to support Governor Hochul. The New York Times (NYT) evaluated, "It was a mistake for Democratic leaders not to worry about New York, fearing it might turn red." CNN also reported, "The Republican Party has taken a surprisingly strong position in New York State," analyzing "How the red wave could hit the blue state of New York." Local reports also reveal that Governor Hochul's campaign spending has surged, and she has even requested SOS help from her primary rivals.

Republican candidate for New York Governor Lee Zeldin
[Photo by EPA Yonhap News]

Candidate Zeldin is considered a close associate of former President Donald Trump. However, considering that Trump's popularity is particularly low throughout New York State, including New York City, this affiliation does not necessarily provide an unconditional advantage. In Washington political circles, given the numerous judicial indictments targeting former President Trump in New York State, Zeldin's candidacy is sometimes interpreted as a form of protection for Trump.

Nevertheless, locally, more attention is being paid to Zeldin's rapid rise and the symbolic significance of the region being New York. Particularly noteworthy is the recent spread of support for Zeldin among independent voters. Among independents, Zeldin's support rate was 20 percentage points higher than Governor Hochul's in the Quinnipiac University poll and 9 percentage points higher in the Siena College poll.

Since Governor Hochul still holds the lead in most polls, frankly speaking, the likelihood of a Republican governor emerging in New York State does not seem very high. However, the recent confirmed trend clearly shows where public sentiment is leaning. New York State voters identified crime (28%) and inflation (20%) as their top concerns in the Quinnipiac University poll. Aside from the fact that inflation is at its highest level in 40 years, the biggest issue in New York City right now is that violent crime has surged to an all-time high since the pandemic. These are issues directly connected to people's livelihoods. How long must people continue to ride the subway and walk the streets fearing potential crimes?

Throughout history and across cultures, politics is not a grand ideological struggle. It is about first understanding the hardships of ordinary people. Only when the 'Four Harmonies (Sasun)' are fulfilled can the 'Four Virtues (Sayu: propriety, righteousness, integrity, and wisdom)' be established. New York, where the midterm elections are just around the corner, is no different.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.