"North Korea's Possibility of Nuclear Test Early Next Year Remains" ... Similar to Past Pattern of 'Provocation Followed by Test'

In 2017, Long-Range Missile Launches Continued After the 6th Nuclear Test
In 2014, Low-Intensity Provocations Like Coastal Artillery Continued Before Nuclear Test

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] There are expectations that North Korea will conduct its 7th nuclear test early next month, and it is anticipated that they will launch intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) to maximize military tensions. This is expected to repeat the pattern from the 2017 6th nuclear test.

On the 26th, during the National Assembly inspection held at the National Intelligence Service (NIS) building in Seoul, the NIS maintained its previous intelligence analysis that there is a possibility of North Korea conducting the 7th nuclear test "before the U.S. midterm elections in November (November 7)." This was conveyed in a press briefing by Yoon Sang-beom of the People Power Party and Yoon Gun-young of the Democratic Party, both members of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee.

Earlier, at the full meeting of the Intelligence Committee last month, the NIS reported that "the third tunnel at Punggye-ri has been completed, increasing the likelihood of a nuclear test," and stated, "If North Korea carries out the 7th nuclear test, it is likely to occur between October 16, after the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, and November 7, before the U.S. midterm elections." Even after about a month, the timing of North Korea's nuclear test is expected to remain unchanged.

Looking at past cases, the analysis that North Korea is following the nuclear test sequence is strong. Just before the 6th nuclear test in September 2017, North Korea test-fired SLBMs and the ICBM Hwasong-14, and in August of that year, it launched the intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) Hwasong-12 over Japanese airspace. After completing the nuclear test, in November, it launched the ICBM Hwasong-15 and declared the completion of its national nuclear force.

However, during the process leading up to the 4th and 5th nuclear tests in April 2016, North Korea showed a different pattern. In 2014, North Korea exposed unusual movements as if it was about to conduct a nuclear test by covering the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, with screens. But it did not conduct a nuclear test. Instead, from March to July of that year, it repeatedly fired multiple rocket launchers and missiles, raising tensions for South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies. In particular, it fired coastal artillery in large numbers near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea, even threatening South Korea’s naval patrol boats. In 2015, it further escalated tensions by firing anti-aircraft guns toward the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) on the South Korean side. North Korea pressed the nuclear button the following year, in 2016.

This month, on the 4th, North Korea launched an IRBM capable of striking Guam beyond the Japanese archipelago and fired about 40 ballistic missiles, threatening both South Korea and the U.S. It is already known that preparations are underway to launch an ICBM at the Dongchang-ri West Sea Satellite Launching Station. The West Sea Satellite Launching Station is considered North Korea’s representative long-range rocket launch site.

The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the U.S. released satellite images from the private satellite company Planet Labs, stating, "The northwest exterior wall of a mobile building, usually white, at the West Sea Satellite Launching Station appears torn open in the satellite image dated the 24th, revealing the interior." South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies understand that modernization work is underway on the building, but they do not rule out the possibility of an ICBM launch.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "To complete the Hwasong-17, which can strike the U.S. mainland with a nuclear weapon, they may launch an ICBM first," adding, "Whether they conduct a nuclear test first or continue provocations before conducting a nuclear test will be decided based on political judgment."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.