[Opinion] The Middle East Shaken Between the US, China, and Russia

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the oil-producing countries' coalition including Russia, known as 'OPEC Plus,' agreed on the 5th to reduce daily crude oil production by 2 million barrels starting next month. The Biden administration, facing sanctions against Russia and aiming for price stability, especially with the midterm elections approaching next month, finds itself in a difficult position as it desperately needs OPEC's cooperation. The United States threatened that Saudi Arabia would pay a price. There were even calls to drastically reduce U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia countered by stating that the production cut was purely an economic decision and hinted that it was actually the U.S. that requested a one-month delay in the cut due to concerns about the midterm elections.

At the 'Desert Davos Forum,' an international investment conference that opened in Saudi Arabia on the 25th, Saudi Arabia announced that unlike in the past, it did not invite U.S. government officials. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa stated on the 17th that Saudi Arabia wants to join BRICS, which is centered on China and Russia. It was also reported that Saudi Arabia decided to strengthen energy supply chain cooperation with China, the largest oil importer.

Meanwhile, on the 11th, Putin held a summit with Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Despite the U.S. warning of disadvantages following the oil production cut decision, President Mohamed visited Russia. The two countries emphasized cooperation in the economic sector. In the face of severe Western sanctions, the UAE serves as a stepping stone for Russian companies to enter the global market. Over 4,000 Russian companies are already operating in the UAE. The UAE shows no sign of yielding to U.S. threats. In December last year, instead of purchasing U.S. F-35 fighter jets, the UAE bought France's Rafale and Chinese-made fighter jets, indicating cracks in the bilateral relationship. In September, the UAE joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, led by China and Russia, as a dialogue partner.

Turkiye's President Erdogan announced on the 19th that Turkiye and Russia agreed to build a gas hub in Turkiye capable of supplying Russian natural gas to Europe. Putin proposed creating Europe's largest gas hub in Turkiye to supply gas that cannot be delivered through the effectively closed Nord Stream via this hub. The first TurkStream pipeline supplying Russian gas to Turkiye began operation in 2020. There are plans to establish a second TurkStream pipeline. With no early prospect of easing European sanctions on Russia, this aims to supply Russian gas to Europe indirectly, alleviating Europe's gas shortage. Becoming an energy hub to Europe has long been Turkiye's dream. Turkiye's geopolitical power will also increase. Compared to U.S. LNG, the volume is larger and prices are cheaper. Whether the Western side will tolerate this remains to be seen.

Additionally, Turkiye can serve as a production base for Russian companies to utilize Western technology. If Russian companies produce goods in Turkiye, which has a customs union with the EU, they can bypass sanctions and enter the European market. As a NATO member, Turkiye already participates in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a dialogue partner and has expressed its intention to become a full member.

Russia's next move will likely be cooperation with Qatar, which is also an ally of Turkiye. Russia, Qatar, and Iran?which has recently strengthened cooperation with Russia in various fields?together hold more than half of the world's gas reserves. In these times of escalating new Cold War tensions, the swift actions of key Middle Eastern countries will have a significant impact on the global order.

Kim Dong-gi, author of 'The Power of Geopolitics'

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.