Resurgence Decline Stops and Spreads Again? ... "Daily Cases Could Surge Up to 50,000"

Infection Reproduction Number Exceeds 1 After 9 Weeks... Reemergence Expected Next Month
Forecasts Diverge Among Research Teams at National Institute for Mathematical Sciences

On the 18th, when the coldest weather of this fall arrived with the first cold wave advisory issued across inland areas, citizens at Gwanghwamun Intersection in Seoul tightened their collars as they walked. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] As the decline in the COVID-19 outbreak has plateaued and there are even signs of a slight increase, projections have emerged that the number of new daily cases could range from 10,000 to as high as 50,000 in the future.

According to the epidemic forecast report from the COVID-19 Mathematical Modeling Task Force (TF) on the 22nd, Kwon Oh-gyu, head of the Public Data Analysis Research Team at the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences, predicted that the number of new daily cases will show a gradual decline for the time being but will reach around 13,000 cases per day two weeks later. This forecast is based on mobility data at the eup, myeon, and dong levels aggregated from KT mobile location data and the cumulative confirmed cases by city and province from November 5 to 19. The report was prepared as of the 19th.

The number of new daily cases over the past week from the 15th of this month were 22,832 → 21,456 → 11,026 → 33,224 → 29,498 → 25,431 → 24,751, averaging 24,031 cases per day.

Professor Jung Eun-ok’s research team at Konkuk University also forecasted a slight decrease in daily new cases to 18,739 one week later and 17,280 two weeks later. The number of severe and critical patients is also expected to decrease to 225 one week later and 206 two weeks later.

Daily New COVID-19 Cases and Cumulative Case Trends

Professor Lee Chang-hyung’s research team at Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST) predicted that the daily new cases will decrease to 18,768 on the 26th, one week later, and to 17,345 on the 2nd of next month, two weeks later. The daily number of severe and critical patients is expected to slightly decrease from 31 on the 19th to 28 on the 26th and 26 on the 2nd of next month.

This forecast is based on an estimated nationwide COVID-19 reproduction number (Rt) of 0.9198 over the past two weeks. However, the reproduction number announced by the health authorities the previous day was 1.09, exceeding 1 for the first time in nine weeks. The research team led by Professor Lee also stated in the same report that if the reproduction number rises to 1.3 in the future, the daily new cases two weeks later could reach the 20,000 range, and the number of severe and critical patients could increase to the 30s.

Professor Jung Il-hyo’s mathematics research team at Pusan National University predicted a larger scale of confirmed cases. They expect the number of new domestic COVID-19 cases to remain around 25,693 from the 19th to the 25th, but increase to 28,268 between the 26th and the 1st of next month. This prediction reflects the average effective reproduction number of 1.16, based on the increase of 3,662 cases in the average daily domestic infections (24,016) from the previous week (20,354) during the period from the 12th to the 18th.

Prediction of New COVID-19 Cases by the Research Team of Professor Sim Eunha, Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University

Professor Shim Eun-ha’s research team at Soongsil University’s Department of Mathematics presented the most pessimistic forecast based on daily new case data over the past four months, predicting that new daily cases will increase to 41,599 on the 26th of this month, one week later, and to 54,616 two weeks later.

Among health authorities and experts, there is also a forecast that a new COVID-19 resurgence could begin as early as next month or early December. On the 17th, Jeong Ki-seok, head of the COVID-19 Special Response Team and member of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee, said, "There is a possibility that a full-scale resurgence will occur around early December in South Korea."

Professor Jung Jae-hoon of Gachon University College of Medicine’s Department of Preventive Medicine recently stated on Facebook, "Although there is no significant increase in any particular variant yet, it is expected that one variant will surge rapidly around early to mid-November," adding, "I predict that the resurgence will begin in earnest from next month." Professor Jung added, "In South Korea, the BF.7 variant is increasing, while in the US and Europe, the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants are becoming more prevalent. BF.7 will cause the initial increase, and BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 will lead the main resurgence."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.