[The Editors' Verdict] A Childless Nation: The 'Predetermined Future' Grows More Uncertain

Decrease in Births While Mortality Rate Increases
Bold Presidential-Centered Measures Needed

Not long ago, I received the news that a senior colleague’s father had passed away. I was informed that they would not be receiving visitors and that the funeral would be quietly held as a family-only event, so I offered my condolences over the phone. Reflecting on it, there seemed to be an unusually high number of obituaries around me recently. I thought about my middle age and the impact of COVID-19. Since my parents are around eighty years old, the parents of my friends and close seniors and juniors are likely of a similar age.

Digging through statistics, I found a plausible alternative reason. In 2021, the number of deaths in South Korea was 317,800. Ten years earlier, in 2011, the number of deaths was 257,400. Compared to ten years ago, the annual number of deaths increased by 60,000, and compared to twenty years ago, it rose by 84,000.

The crude death rate, which refers to the number of deaths per 1,000 people, increased from 5.1 in 2011 to 6.2 last year, a 21.6% rise. The crude death rate has been steadily increasing over the past decade, with the growth of the elderly population due to aging cited as the primary reason.

On the other hand, the number of marriages last year was 192,500, falling below 200,000 for the first time ever. Considering that the number of marriages in 2011 was 329,000, it has decreased by 41.5% over ten years. Applying the statistics arithmetically, if ten years ago there were 0.78 obituaries for every wedding invitation received, now there are 1.65 obituaries per wedding invitation. The numbers prove that having more obituaries than wedding invitations is not just because of my age.

When I previously wrote articles related to population, I was shocked by the book Jeonghaejin Mirae (The Predetermined Future) by Seoul National University demographer Professor Cho Young-tae. From a demographic perspective, Professor Cho explained that all futures?such as youth unemployment, industrial structure, and retirement preparation?are somewhat predetermined and explainable. He said that future predictions are possible by looking at marriage rates and total fertility rates. He emphasized that there is no more accurate tool than population data for predicting 10 to 20 years ahead and highlighted the importance of interpretative skills to meaningfully analyze these numbers. Rather than sensationally warning about the pessimistic social future painted by low birthrates and aging, he offered hope that survival strategies for Korea in ten years could be found within this predetermined future. However, this was based on the premise that the annual number of births would remain in the 400,000 range for another ten years to allow for downsizing preparations.

Now, six years after the book’s publication, the situation has become more serious than he anticipated. The number of births collapsed from the 400,000 range to the 200,000 range within three years. Last year, the number of births sharply dropped to 260,000 (total fertility rate of 0.81), and last month, Statistics Korea released population trend data showing a total fertility rate of 0.75 for the second quarter.

While the total fertility rate has halved, population policies have repeatedly failed. Experts say that in South Korea’s structural reality, unless the president takes action, low birthrate measures are unlikely to be effective. The president must take the lead and establish a control tower that can oversee all ministries to prepare long-term population policies, which requires foresight to see the nation’s future and strong leadership. Focusing only on political interests and power struggles will only waste time. We live in an era where children’s cries are precious enough that while individuals bear the responsibility of giving birth, society must take responsibility for raising them. Without action from those in power, change is unlikely. Only radical approaches can alter the situation.

Kim Min-jin, Head of the Ministry of SMEs and Startups

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.