Infection Reproduction Number Below 1 for the First Time in 9 Weeks... "Severe Cases and Deaths to Increase Temporarily"

Weekly confirmed cases down 13.8% from previous week
7.64% of cases suspected reinfections
Researchers: "Epidemic peak passed in the 3rd week of August"

On the 24th, as the spread of COVID-19 continued, the screening clinic at Mapo-gu Public Health Center in Seoul was crowded with citizens. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] The COVID-19 infection reproduction number has dropped below 1 for the first time in nine weeks, clearly indicating a decline in the outbreak. While researchers estimate that the peak of the outbreak has passed, severe cases and deaths are expected to increase for the time being.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 30th, the weekly number of confirmed cases in the fourth week of this month (August 21?27) was 769,552, a 13.8% decrease compared to the previous week. The infection reproduction number was 0.98, marking the first time in nine weeks since the fifth week of June that it fell below 1. An infection reproduction number above 1 indicates outbreak expansion, while below 1 indicates outbreak suppression.

Im Sook-young, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters Situation Management Team, explained, "Although the incidence rate has decreased across all age groups, the proportion of high-risk groups aged 60 and over is still on the rise," adding, "The age groups with high incidence rates are school-age children, infants and toddlers, and people in their 20s." The proportion of confirmed cases aged 60 and over among weekly cases has steadily increased from 20.2% in the first week of this month to 21.7% in the second week, 22.7% in the third week, and 23.7% in the fourth week.

The estimated reinfection rate among confirmed cases in the third week of this month was 7.64%, up 0.99 percentage points from 6.65% the previous week. As of midnight on the 21st, among the cumulative 21,797,986 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 300,037 were estimated reinfections, accounting for an incidence rate of 1.38%.

Although the number of confirmed cases is decreasing, severe cases and deaths continue to rise. The weekly number of new severe cases was 597, a 28.9% increase from the previous week, and deaths numbered 519, up 25.4% from the previous week. Im said, "The outbreak is expected to gradually decline for the time being, but severe cases and deaths, which appear with a time lag of about 2 to 3 weeks after infection, may stagnate or increase for the time being."

Research teams predicted that the outbreak passed its peak in the third week of this month and will gradually decline for the time being. Through short-term predictive modeling by each team, they forecasted around 100,000 to 110,000 cases occurring 2 to 4 weeks later. The research teams expected the number of severe cases to peak at 580 to 850 from late August to early September, and daily deaths to average between 60 and 70 over the course of a month.

Meanwhile, the detection rate of the BA.5 variant, which recently led the resurgence, was recorded at 95.5% over the past week. It accounted for 97.6% of domestic infections and 90.9% of imported cases. During this period, 26 additional cases of BA.2.75 were detected, bringing the cumulative total to 102 cases.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.