[The Editors' Verdict] Is Kissinger Right?... Hoping for an End to the Ukraine War

The Wall of Realism in the International Political Order

[Asia Economy Jeong Jaehyung, Economic and Financial Editor]

Henry Kissinger, the former U.S. Secretary of State who is 99 years old this year, urged the West to stop its involvement in the Ukraine war at the World Economic Forum (WEF, Davos Forum) on May 23, stating, "The West's attempt to defeat Russia in Ukraine will bring disastrous consequences to Europe's long-term stability." He said, "The most ideal situation is for the border between Ukraine and Russia to return to its pre-war state." The pre-war state means that Russia officially occupies the Crimean Peninsula and unofficially controls the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, including Luhansk and Donetsk.

At the time, it was hard to understand what he meant. Although Kissinger led the U.S.-China diplomatic normalization, I wondered if he had become too old and his judgment was clouded, or if he was senile. It was difficult to accept Putin, who invaded Ukraine relying solely on power and created a merciless tragedy of war. Many Western media outlets criticized him.

However, just one or two weeks later, the situation changed. Realistically, especially among European countries heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, opinions similar to Kissinger's emerged, suggesting that Putin should be given a reason to end the war and that negotiations for a quick ceasefire should be pursued. As a result, international public opinion seemed to become divided. Of course, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky strongly opposed this, and subsequent Ukrainian public opinion polls showed that about 80% of the population rejected ceding territory and wanted to fight to the end.

What is right is clear. The 'Madrid Summit Declaration' announced by NATO on June 29 included the statement: "We are united by democracy, individual freedom, human rights, and the rule of law. We uphold international law and the purposes and principles of the United Nations (UN) Charter and will maintain a rules-based international order."

However, no matter how righteous the values are, the question remains whether the situation and conditions exist to uphold them. Western countries, including the U.S., are providing weapons to Ukraine to defend the value of liberal democracy. But will that enable Ukraine to defeat Russia? Will Putin accept defeat?

In the five months since Russia invaded Ukraine, tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians have died, and much of Ukraine's physical infrastructure has been destroyed. Countries around the world are suffering from inflation caused by rising prices of international raw materials and grains. As Russia controls natural gas exports to Europe, European countries are still struggling and may face an energy crisis this winter.

Kissinger is a deeply pragmatic realist. He says Russia has been part of Europe for 400 years and has been a key pillar in the balance of power within Europe. He emphasizes that the West must restore Russia's role to ensure that Russia does not become a permanent ally of China.

No matter how important the ideals we pursue are, if we cannot control the situation in reality, they are just empty words. U.S. President Joe Biden, during his presidential campaign, called Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a "pariah" over the assassination of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Yet, when he visited Saudi Arabia on July 15-16 to urge the world's largest oil producer to increase oil production amid the worst inflation in 40 years, he returned empty-handed.

I hope the war between Russia and Ukraine ends soon. We must be able to compromise even with the devil.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.