The New Cold War Structure Intensifies, Asian Countries at a Crossroads Face 'Every Man for Himself' [Ukraine Shockwave⑫]

Most Countries Including India Advocate 'Neutral Diplomacy'
Saudi Arabia and Middle Eastern Nations Demand Security Guarantees from the US
Turkiye and Indonesia Position Themselves as Mediators

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Hyun-woo] As the 'New Cold War' structure between the liberal camp centered on the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the authoritarian camp represented by China and Russia has intensified before and after the Ukraine crisis, Asian countries, which have deep ties with both camps, have reached a critical crossroads.

While the United States and Western countries are seeking to expand the liberal camp by highlighting human rights issues such as Russia's unjust war and civilian massacres, Asian countries are showing different approaches strictly based on the situations and national interests of each region and country.

Most Asian countries, like India, uphold neutral diplomacy as a principle and thoroughly utilize both camps. Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia have gone a step further by demanding security guarantees from the United States. Countries like T?rkiye (Turkey) and Indonesia are volunteering for mediation diplomacy to improve their international image.

As the United States and China are expected to try to incorporate more countries in various ways to expand their respective camps in the future, the diplomatic forms of Asian countries are also expected to diversify further.

◆ India Values 'Oil' and 'Weapons' More Than 'Human Rights'

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

After the Ukraine war, most Asian countries have declared neutral diplomacy, not siding with either the West or China and Russia, and are evaluated to be acting strictly according to their national interests. Although the Biden administration in the United States is expanding its camp based on values such as human rights and liberalism, Asian countries are said to have no interest in such value alliances.

They also abstained when the United Nations (UN) passed a resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine on March 2. At that time, 141 countries voted in favor, five countries including Russia opposed, and 35 countries from Asia and Africa, including China, India, Iran, and Iraq, abstained.

In particular, India, a member of the Quad, a U.S.-led military consultative group for Indo-Pacific regional containment of China, has been reluctant to join sanctions against Russia. Behind this is the cheap crude oil and weapons imported from Russia.

According to Bloomberg News, Indian customs data showed that the import value of Russian oil over three months since the end of February, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, increased more than fivefold year-on-year to $5.1 billion (about 6.634 trillion KRW). Despite strong U.S. opposition, India continues to increase its imports of Russian oil. India is also known to depend on Russia for half of its weapons imports.

The British Economist explained, "Most developing countries in Asia choose camp logic strictly based on national interests. The key is which side offers more benefits and security advantages rather than values like human rights," and added, "This explains why typical authoritarian countries like Vietnam and Cambodia actively participate in the UN's resolution condemning Russia and sanctions against Russia, unlike India."

◆ Middle Eastern Countries Seeking to Reverse U.S. Exit Strategy

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Middle Eastern countries are moving a step beyond passive neutrality and are leveraging the Ukraine war to actively demand security guarantees from the United States.

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced on the 6th that it added 15 companies, organizations, and individuals who helped export hundreds of millions of dollars worth of oil and petrochemical products from Iran to East Asia to the list of entities subject to additional Iran sanctions. This strong action against Iran was taken in line with the requests of these countries ahead of President Biden's visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia from the 13th to the 16th.

According to The New York Times (NYT), President Biden revealed at a press conference during the NATO summit at the end of last month that Israel strongly requested the Middle East tour including Saudi Arabia. President Biden emphasized, "The purpose of this Middle East tour is to strengthen Israel's integration in the region and is good for Middle East peace and Israel's security," and added, "Israel strongly requested the Saudi Arabia visit."

U.S. allies in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, are demanding that the United States abandon the Middle East exit strategy pursued since the Trump administration and return to active military involvement in Middle East security.

During this visit, President Biden is scheduled to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia reportedly requested immunity for Crown Prince bin Salman, withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), and re-designation of the Yemen Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, as a terrorist organization.

◆ T?rkiye and Indonesia Volunteering for Mediation Diplomacy

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Countries like T?rkiye and Indonesia are volunteering for the challenging role of mediation diplomacy to enhance their international status.

According to the British Guardian, at the 'Ukraine Reconstruction Conference' held in Lugano, Switzerland, from the 4th to the 5th, T?rkiye declared it would focus support on rebuilding the Kharkiv region, Ukraine's second-largest city. T?rkiye, along with the UN, has emerged as a key mediator in negotiations to resume Black Sea grain trade between Ukraine and Russia and has been actively involved in mediation issues between Russia and Ukraine since the war began.

This is evaluated as a move to maintain T?rkiye's national interests, including security support from the United States, while improving its image, which had previously caused friction with the West due to pro-Russian actions. Earlier, on the 29th of last month, the U.S. Department of Defense announced strong support for the sale of the F-16 fighter jet modernization program, which the Turkish government has persistently requested since September last year. This matter is currently awaiting approval by the U.S. Congress.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Indonesia, the chair country of the G20 this year, is also engaging in unprecedented mediation diplomacy. On the 30th of last month, Indonesian President Joko Widodo met consecutively with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, inviting both sides to the G20 meeting to be held in Bali, Indonesia, this November and urging a ceasefire negotiation.

Indonesia has also declared a non-aligned and neutral policy similar to India as the basic principle of its diplomatic policy but is actively engaging in mediation diplomacy related to the Ukraine war. This is interpreted as a diplomatic move aimed at resolving inflation issues caused by soaring grain prices after the Ukraine war and attracting economic support and investment from China and the West. Additionally, it is analyzed as an attempt to raise its international status by utilizing its G20 chairmanship and the ASEAN chairmanship starting next year.

◆ Japan and Taiwan Strengthening Semiconductor Alliance

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Japan is recently focusing on forming a U.S.-led semiconductor alliance while closely monitoring China's military provocations against Taiwan. This is because if China's invasion of Taiwan becomes a reality, the semiconductor sector, linked to major manufacturing industries, is expected to suffer enormous damage.

According to Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), Taiwan semiconductor manufacturer TSMC opened a semiconductor research and development center in Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, on the 24th of last month. Of the 37 billion yen (about 355 billion KRW) project cost, 19 billion yen, half of the amount, was supported by the Japanese government.

Additionally, TSMC is constructing a semiconductor factory in Kikuyo Town, Kumamoto Prefecture, jointly operated with Japanese companies Sony and Denso. The factory is scheduled to start operations in December 2024. Of the approximately 1.1 trillion yen construction cost, about half, 476 billion yen, will also be supported by the Japanese government.

These moves are interpreted as part of the 'Chip 4 Alliance' proposed individually by the United States to the governments of South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan in March. This alliance aims primarily to strengthen cooperation among the U.S. and Asian semiconductor manufacturing countries and increase deterrence against China, following the establishment of the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) in May.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.