[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Is the Postponed 7th Nuclear Test Returning to 2016?

On the 24th, officials from North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Research Institute carried out demolition work to close the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province. At the moment of the demolition of the Punggye-ri nuclear test command and control facility, wooden buildings were blown apart and shattered. On this day, seven buildings of the command and control facility were demolished. Officials from North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Research Institute explained that "Tunnel No. 4 was prepared for the most powerful nuclear test." / Photo by Joint Press Corps

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As forecasts emerge that North Korea will conduct its 7th nuclear test around September, when the monsoon season ends, there are observations that it will follow a provocation pattern similar to that of 2016-17.

According to the '2022 Second Half Situation Focus' published by the National Security Strategy Institute, the intensity of North Korea's military demonstrations, including nuclear and missile provocations, is expected to increase in the second half of this year, heightening security concerns.

In this publication, Researcher Kim Bomi stated that as COVID-19 enters a calming phase in North Korea and the Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG), one of the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises, is revived under a new name around August, North Korea is likely to publicly conduct weapons tests and showcase its achievements.

He also explained, "It is difficult to rule out the risk that North Korea's military demonstrations, which react sensitively to large and small joint military exercises, could lead to 'localized provocations.'" Such localized provocations could be "to test our military's readiness in areas such as the West Sea or the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) border areas."

If the forecast holds, North Korea's provocation pattern will resemble the form of provocations seen in 2016-17. In the past, North Korea continued ballistic missile provocations for a period before conducting nuclear tests, reaching a peak in tension on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea launched submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), Nodong missiles, and Scud-series missiles five times on July 9 and 19, August 3 and 24, and September 5 in 2016, followed by the 5th nuclear test on the '9.9 Day' (September 9). In 2017, after missile provocations on July 4 and 28, and August 26 and 29, North Korea conducted its 6th nuclear test on September 3.

Additionally, some speculate that the timing of North Korea's 7th nuclear test might reenact the '2014 scenario.' In early 2014, North Korea exposed signs of preparing for a nuclear test, raising tensions for South Korean military authorities, but the actual nuclear test was carried out two years later on January 6, 2016. That was North Korea's fourth nuclear test in history.

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