"If COVID-19 Quarantine Mandate Is Lifted... Confirmed Cases Could Surge Over 8 Times by Late August"

Health Authorities, "Need to Maintain Stable Situation Until Second Half Vaccinations"
Benefits of Lifting Quarantine Obligation Not Clear

On the morning of the 13th, citizens are waiting for COVID-19 testing at the Seoul Station screening clinic. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] The government's decision to maintain the mandatory '7-day isolation' for COVID-19 confirmed cases for the time being is based on the judgment that the epidemic situation needs to be managed more stably. If isolation is lifted immediately, the number of confirmed cases is predicted to rapidly increase again, surging 8.3 times by the end of August compared to maintaining isolation.

Kim Heon-ju, First Deputy Director of the Central Disease Control Headquarters (Vice Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency), stated at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters briefing on the 17th, "Considering that the immunity effect formed by the winter 2021 epidemic and this year's Omicron wave decreases after 4 to 6 months, and that the risk of transmission may increase after July and August this year, we have decided to maintain the isolation obligation for the next four weeks."

This is interpreted as a judgment that, in a situation where most experts mention the possibility of a resurgence in the second half of the year, it is necessary to create the most stable situation possible before the resurgence arrives.

In recent government expert task forces (TF) and the Infectious Disease Crisis Management Expert Committee, opinions were also expressed that "although some indicators such as medical response capacity have been achieved, the number of deaths has not sufficiently decreased yet, and relaxing the isolation obligation could accelerate the timing of re-spread and increase the scale of damage."

According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, maintaining the current 7-day isolation obligation is expected to sustain the declining trend of the epidemic, with a low-level increase in confirmed cases anticipated by the end of August.

On the other hand, if the isolation obligation is lifted, the epidemic is predicted to rebound immediately, with confirmed cases rapidly increasing from July, reaching 8.3 times more by the end of August compared to maintaining the 7-day isolation. Furthermore, shortening the isolation period to 3 or 5 days is expected to stall the decline and cause an increase by the end of August greater than that under the 7-day isolation.

If confirmed cases increase rapidly, the government's second half vaccination plan, which is being promoted considering the emergence of new variants and immunity decline, could be disrupted, so it is necessary to suppress the trend of confirmed cases as much as possible. Additionally, considering characteristics such as the viral shedding amount and cultivation period of the COVID-19 virus, maintaining a 7-day isolation is considered stable.

The health authorities explained, "While the damage caused by lifting the isolation obligation, such as the predicted increase in deaths, can be relatively clearly quantified, the benefits gained from lifting the isolation obligation are difficult to quantify clearly."

With this decision, the isolation obligation for COVID-19 confirmed cases will be maintained from the 20th of this month until the 17th of next month. The government plans to conduct periodic re-evaluations every four weeks, but if indicators are judged to be met before then, a comprehensive review will be conducted to consider transitioning the isolation obligation.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.