Evaluation of Quarantine Obligation Transition, Key Indicator is 'Influenza Level' Mortality and Fatality Rates (Update)

Auxiliary Indicators: Trend Prediction, Excess Mortality, Variant Influx, Healthcare System Capacity

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] As the government decided to extend the mandatory isolation for COVID-19 confirmed cases for another 4 weeks, it announced that the death and fatality rates at the level of influenza are the key indicators for deciding the transition of isolation obligations.

On the 17th, Kim Heon-ju, the 1st Deputy Director of the Central Disease Control Headquarters (Vice Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency), explained, "During the process of establishing transition criteria, experts commonly suggested the need to comprehensively evaluate various indicators rather than relying on a single indicator."

The health authorities categorized the indicators into core indicators and supplementary indicators. The final decision on whether to transition isolation will be made after a qualitative comprehensive evaluation of each indicator.

The core indicators are the number of deaths and fatality rates based on influenza, a respiratory infectious disease similar to COVID-19. The criteria are an average daily death count of 10 to 20 or fewer, or a weekly death count of 50 to 100 or fewer. The fatality rate should fall within the influenza fatality rate range of 0.05% to 0.1%.

The supplementary indicators are set as four categories: future epidemic prediction, excess mortality, variant viruses, and the healthcare system's response capacity.

The epidemic prediction indicator is met if, after transitioning isolation from mandatory to recommended, the isolation compliance rate is around 50% and the epidemic curve is predicted not to rebound for 2 to 3 months.

The excess mortality indicator criterion is that excess deaths due to COVID-19 do not significantly occur, and the number of excess deaths is managed within 5% compared to the maximum number of deaths in the past three years.

The variant virus indicator evaluates the occurrence of major variants that affect the spread of the epidemic or increase in deaths.

The healthcare system response capacity is assessed based on the weekly risk assessment results. The criterion is met if the weekly risk level remains 'low' for more than 4 weeks.

This decision to extend the isolation obligation was also based on an evaluation of the current situation using these five indicators. Deputy Director Kim said, "When comprehensively reviewing the isolation transition indicators, some indicators are considered achieved, but since the number of deaths has not sufficiently decreased and the epidemic prediction results suggest a possibility of rebound, the transition of isolation obligations needs to be carefully considered."

Regarding the detailed indicators, the core indicator of fatality rate met the criteria, but the death count did not reach the standard. The current weekly COVID-19 death count is close to the indicator standard of 50 to 100 or fewer, but in the second week of June, the weekly death count was 113, exceeding the standard. Meanwhile, last month's COVID-19 fatality rate was 0.07%, within the standard range.

Among the supplementary indicators, the variant and healthcare capacity met the criteria, but the epidemic prediction and excess mortality indicators fell short.

Experts' future epidemic predictions indicate that if the isolation obligation is lifted, the COVID-19 epidemic will shift to a rapid increase starting in July, and by the end of August, there could be an additional 8.3% increase compared to maintaining the isolation obligation.

When the isolation period was shortened to 3 to 5 days, the decline stalled, and a moderate or higher resurgence was expected by the end of August. If the isolation obligation is maintained for 7 days, the current decline is expected to continue, and the increase in confirmed cases by the end of August is expected to remain low.

Excess mortality decreased from 62.8% in March to 41.4% in April but still did not meet the standard (5%). Lim Sook-young, head of the Situation Management Team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, explained, "Excess mortality figures are accurate only after 2 to 3 months, so they do not immediately reflect the current situation and are used as supplementary indicators. However, recently, a downward trend has been observed, which can indicate a tendency."

The health authorities judged that although Omicron subvariants are emerging, they have not significantly affected the epidemic so far. The healthcare response capacity met the indicator standard with the weekly risk assessment showing 'low' for four consecutive weeks.

The government plans to continuously monitor the indicators and conduct periodic re-evaluations every 4 weeks. However, if the indicators are judged to be met before the 4 weeks pass, a comprehensive review will be conducted, and the transition of isolation obligations will be considered.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.