[R Horror] 68% of Economists Predict US Recession Next Year

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] The inflation shock is spreading as the so-called 'R (Recession) fear'.

According to a survey jointly conducted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business IGM and others on the 12th (local time), 68% of economists surveyed predicted a recession in the United States in 2023. Specifically, 38% expected it in the first half of 2023, and 30% in the second half. For the first half of 2024, 9% predicted a recession, and 21% for the second half.

The results of this survey were released amid concerns over further tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May rose by 8.6%, the highest in about 41 years. Contrary to the Fed's position that a 'soft landing' to curb inflation with slight pain is possible, the majority of economists believe a recession is inevitable.

Mohamed El-Erian, economic advisor at Allianz, warned, "U.S. inflation could worsen and reach 9%," adding, "If high inflation persists, a recession will inevitably occur." Larry Summers, Harvard University professor and former U.S. Treasury Secretary under the Bill Clinton administration, also predicted that the U.S. will face a recession within the next one to two years.

The Fed, which entered a rate hike cycle starting in March this year, has already signaled a 'big step' of raising interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting scheduled for June 14-15.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.