The Reversing Nuclear Disarmament Clock, Back into the Threat of Nuclear Weapons [Ukraine Shockwave⑦]

Russian Senior Official on Nuclear Threat "Nuclear War Not Impossible"
Russia and China Now Have More Nuclear Weapons Than US and NATO Members
Germany, Japan, and Other WWII Axis Powers Accelerate Rearmament

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, senior Russian officials have unabashedly issued nuclear threats toward the West, raising global concerns over nuclear security. With the collapse of existing nuclear arms control frameworks between the United States and Russia, and the strengthening of nuclear capabilities in China, India, and North Korea, the nuclear security of U.S. allies is also under threat. As security anxieties grow, countries are clearly pursuing rearmament policies, leading to record-high global military expenditure.

◆ Persistent Russian Nuclear Threats Since Ukraine Invasion... The Vanishing 'Nuclear Taboo'

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

According to CNN on the 9th (local time), the Russian military has been conducting intensive nuclear weapons power mobilization drills since the 1st in the Yars region of Ivanovo Oblast near Moscow. Following a simulated nuclear warhead attack drill last month on Kaliningrad, an exclave territory in the Baltic Sea adjacent to Finland and Sweden, Russia is once again displaying its nuclear capabilities toward European countries.

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council and a close aide to President Putin, recently stirred controversy by directly mentioning the possibility of nuclear war. In an interview with Al Jazeera on the 3rd, Medvedev warned strongly, saying, "It is a mistake to say nuclear war is impossible just because it is absolutely unlikely," and "Russia will retaliate with nuclear weapons if attacked with nuclear weapons or if subjected to a conventional attack threatening the existence of the state."

Since the Ukraine war, Russian senior officials have continued to issue nuclear war threats. Earlier, on April 20th, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally observed the test launch of Russia's latest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Sarmat, and boasted, "Those who try to threaten Russia will think twice," showcasing nuclear power.

Experts warn that Russia breaking the tacit international taboo against nuclear war, which has persisted since the Cold War, is spreading global nuclear security concerns.

Nina Tannenwald, an international politics expert at Brown University in the U.S., wrote recently in The Economist, "Russia's invasion of Ukraine has broken the international taboo against the use of nuclear weapons that has been strengthened since the Hiroshima atomic bombing in 1945," adding, "With all arms control agreements between the U.S. and Russia now void, and China's nuclear capabilities rapidly expanding, global nuclear proliferation will intensify."

◆ China and Russia Possess More Nuclear Weapons Than U.S. and NATO Allies... A Precarious Nuclear Umbrella

[Image source=Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) website]

In particular, as China's nuclear capabilities have significantly strengthened recently, the combined number of nuclear weapons held by Russia and China has surpassed that of the United States and NATO allies, increasing nuclear security concerns.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), as of January last year, Russia is estimated to possess 6,255 nuclear warheads, and China 350. The combined total of 6,605 warheads exceeds by 540 the combined holdings of the U.S. (5,550), France (290), and the U.K. (225).

Projections that China will more than triple its nuclear arsenal by 2030 suggest the gap in holdings will widen further.

Charles Richard, Commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, stated at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the 4th of last month, "China plans to manufacture at least 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030," and "China is closely monitoring the Ukraine war and will likely leverage its nuclear capabilities to its advantage in future conflicts."

Earlier, in November last year, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) reported that the Chinese government is constructing nuclear weapon storage facilities capable of housing at least 300 nuclear missiles in three locations: Hami in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Yumen in Gansu Province, and Ordos in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

India (156 warheads) and Pakistan (165 warheads), which have increased their nuclear arsenals amid border disputes, are also known to possess over 150 nuclear weapons each. North Korea is estimated to have 40 to 50 nuclear weapons, expanding nuclear security concerns across Asia. The restoration of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which has been temporarily stalled since the Ukraine crisis, is also in limbo, raising prospects that Iran may soon acquire nuclear capabilities.

◆ Germany and Japan's Largest Rearmament Since World War II... The End of the Arms Reduction Era

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

In the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis, Germany, which had maintained a disarmament stance since World War II, has embarked on large-scale rearmament. Japan has also announced plans to more than double its defense budget within the next five years, accelerating its rearmament efforts.

On the 3rd, the German Bundestag passed a constitutional amendment to establish a special defense fund of 100 billion euros (approximately 134 trillion KRW) for military rearmament and modernization of military equipment. With an overwhelming majority of 567 votes in favor, 96 against, and 20 abstentions, the special defense fund was approved, and Germany's defense spending as a percentage of GDP is expected to exceed 2%. For the past 20 years since the Cold War, Germany's defense spending has remained between 1% and 1.4% of GDP.

With this special defense fund, Germany has risen to become the world's third-largest defense spender after the U.S. and China. The German government is expected to use the fund to purchase 35 U.S. F-35 fighter jets and 60 CH-47F Chinook medium helicopters, announced earlier in March.

Japan has also declared a large-scale increase in defense spending. According to the Nihon Keizai (Nikkei) newspaper, on the 7th, the Japanese government finalized the "Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform," which explicitly states plans to "significantly enhance defense capabilities within five years."

Although the Japanese government did not specify a concrete defense budget target, Nikkei reported that it plans to secure more than 2% of GDP for defense spending. This 2% level corresponds to double the current approximately 1% of GDP.

Japan has been steadily increasing its defense budget since 2013, but the annual growth rate in recent years has been around 1% compared to the previous year. Defense spending as a percentage of GDP has remained around 1%. To achieve a 2% GDP level over five years, Japan would need to increase its defense budget by over 1 trillion yen (approximately 9.5 trillion KRW) annually. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had previously argued that the 2023 defense budget should be close to the high 6 trillion yen to 7 trillion yen range.

Not only Germany and Japan, but military spending in national budgets worldwide has been rapidly increasing. According to SIPRI's data, global military expenditure reached $2.113 trillion (approximately 2,683 trillion KRW) last year, surpassing the $2 trillion mark for the first time ever. Despite the impact of COVID-19, military spending has increased for seven consecutive years.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.