In 2050, Sejong Remains a 'Young City', While Daejeon and Chungnam Show Clear Aging and Population Decline

Graph of 'Population Growth Rate' by City and Province in 2050 Compared to 2020. Provided by Statistics Korea

[Asia Economy (Daejeon) Reporter Jeong Il-woong] It is projected that Sejong will remain the youngest city nationwide even in 2050. Conversely, Daejeon and Chungnam are expected to experience a rapid aging process alongside a total population decline. In particular, Daejeon is anticipated to have the largest population decrease in the Chungcheong region by 2050, creating a stark contrast with its neighboring city, Sejong.

According to the ‘2020-2050 Future Population Projections by City and Province’ recently released by Statistics Korea, the working-age population is expected to decrease in 16 cities and provinces nationwide, excluding Sejong, compared to 2020.

During this period, the regions with the highest decline rates in the working-age population (ages 14 to under 65) are Ulsan (-50.6%) and Daegu (-49.0%), while the lowest decline rates are seen in Gyeonggi (-22.2%) and Jeju (-23.6%). In contrast, Sejong is the only city nationwide expected to see a 48.1% (120,000 people) increase in its working-age population by 2050.

In the future population projections, Sejong’s median age in 2050 is expected to be 50.9 years, which is 13.8 years younger than Jeonnam’s 64.7 years?the highest median age nationwide?marking the lowest median age across the country.

Conversely, the elderly population aged 65 and over in 2050 is expected to be lowest in Sejong at 28.8%, followed by Gyeonggi at 36.4%, and Seoul at 37.0%, while it is expected to be highest in Gangwon at 47.2%, Gyeongbuk at 48.9%, and Jeonnam at 49.5%.

Graph of the change rate in the working-age population by city and province in 2050 compared to 2020. Provided by Statistics Korea

However, the situation is quite different in Daejeon, which is adjacent to Sejong. If the current birth rate is maintained, Daejeon’s working-age population is projected to decrease by 40.2%, from 1.1 million in 2020 to 660,000 in 2050, while the elderly population aged 65 and over is expected to increase from 210,000 to 470,000.

The total population gap between Sejong and Daejeon is also expected to widen in the future population projections. Sejong’s total population is projected to increase by 280,000 (81.1%) by 2050 compared to 2020, whereas Daejeon’s total population is expected to decrease by 250,000 (15%).

During the same period, among the 17 cities and provinces nationwide, the total population is expected to decrease in 13 regions including Seoul and Busan, while it is expected to increase in four regions: Gyeonggi, Sejong, Jeju, and Chungnam, indicating a potential widening of regional population disparities.

Graph of median age by city and province in 2050 compared to 2020. Provided by Statistics Korea

In the Chungcheong region, besides Sejong and Daejeon, Chungnam’s total population is expected to increase by 10,000 (0.7%) by 2050 compared to 2020, while Chungbuk’s total population is projected to decrease by 30,000 (5%), highlighting contrasting trends among the regions.

However, Chungnam’s elderly population aged 65 and over is expected to nearly triple, from 390,000 in 2020 to 940,000 in 2050, indicating that it will not be free from the challenges of population aging.

According to the future population projections, Chungnam’s median age is expected to rise from 44.1 years in 2020 to 60.0 years in 2050, which is 2.1 years higher than the national median age of 57.9 years.

Meanwhile, the future population projections by city and province were prepared by combining assumptions on births, deaths, and migration to create a baseline median projection, as well as high, low, no-migration, current fertility, low fertility, aging, and 10-year averages of domestic migration, considering the uncertainties inherent in future population projections.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.