Leaving Seoul to Find a 'Saejip'... Moving to Seoul for 'Education and Work'

Seoul City Announces Analysis Results on Population Migration Patterns and Factors within Seoul Metropolitan Area
Major Cause of Population Outflow is 'Large-scale New Housing Supply in Metropolitan Area' Rather Than Housing Price Differences
Increase in Owner-Occupied and Apartment Shares with Migration from Seoul to Gyeonggi... Overall Housing Benefits Including Larger Housing Area Increase

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Cheol-young] A significant number of Seoul citizens moving out to Hanam, Hwaseong, Gimpo, and other areas in Gyeonggi Province are leaving Seoul in search of large-scale new housing. In particular, after moving to Gyeonggi Province, the rate of homeownership and apartment residence increased sharply. On the other hand, the main reasons for moving into Seoul were found to be education and work.

On the 12th, the Seoul Institute announced the results of an analysis titled “Patterns and Factors of Population Inflow and Outflow in Seoul within the Metropolitan Area,” based on raw data from the 2020 Domestic Population Movement Statistics by Statistics Korea and its own survey.

Through network analysis of net population movement routes between the metropolitan area and Seoul, major outflow destinations were identified as Hanam, Hwaseong, Gimpo, Siheung, and Namyangju. These areas are representative large-scale urban development zones, and the development of metropolitan housing areas and new towns aligned with high-quality housing demand is analyzed to have promoted migration. Seoul’s population sharply decreased during the period (1989?1996) due to the development of the first phase of metropolitan new towns, and since then, with the development of the second phase of new towns and population decline due to low birth rates from 2010, the trend has continued downward.

Considering various factors simultaneously, multiple regression analysis (statistical analysis) to determine relative importance confirmed that the most important factor increasing net migration was new housing supply. The Seoul Institute explained, “Besides new housing supply, there was also a tendency for net migration to increase to areas with high employment rates and good infrastructure. Regarding housing prices, differences in jeonse (long-term lease) prices could explain population movement for some age groups, but generally, prices such as sale prices and monthly rent, which were expected to have an effect, were found to be statistically insignificant.”

In fact, a survey conducted on those who moved from Seoul to Gyeonggi Province found that after moving out, homeownership increased significantly from 30.1% to 46.2%, apartment residence from 42.6% to 66.8%, and overall housing costs decreased, indicating an increase in overall residential benefits. The detailed reasons for moving to Gyeonggi Province were lease contract expiration (housing), job change (work), and marriage (family), in that order. This is interpreted as a result of increased demand for high-quality living space such as larger housing area due to family expansion including marriage.

Furthermore, when moving from Seoul to the Gyeongin area, the most important consideration was housing area. According to the survey, 62.5% of respondents said their housing size increased when moving from Seoul to Gyeonggi, more than twice the 28.5% who said their housing size increased when moving from Gyeonggi to Seoul. The Seoul Institute diagnosed, “So far, Seoul has had limited supply of high-quality housing centered on apartments due to real estate policies, which is effectively a major cause of population outflow. Considering loss of population competitiveness and induced traffic demand, increasing housing supply in Seoul can be interpreted as important.”

Even among those who moved from Seoul to Gyeonggi and Incheon, 46.5% still showed a high dependence on Seoul. Among residents of the Gyeongin area, 50.4% visited Seoul at least once a week, and 81.3% visited at least once a month, with 36% of visits for work or school life, maintaining daily activities centered on Seoul.

Meanwhile, according to the Domestic Population Movement Statistics, Seoul recorded a net inflow of 75,886 people for reasons of education and work, and this net inflow was found only among people in their 20s.

For those moving into Seoul, transportation benefits increased, such as a reduction in average commuting and school travel time (from 72 minutes to 42 minutes), rather than residential benefits after moving. For migrants to the Gyeongin area, average travel time increased by 5 minutes (from 50 minutes to 55 minutes), whereas for migrants to Seoul, it decreased by 30 minutes.

Distinct patterns of inflow and outflow were also observed by autonomous district. Gangdong and Yeongdeungpo showed the strongest net inflow trends due to housing reasons, and especially Yeongdeungpo showed strong net inflow due to work, attracting diverse population groups. Gwanak, Jung-gu, Yongsan, Seodaemun, and Mapo showed patterns of net inflow mainly for work and education reasons, with Gwanak confirmed as a gateway for young people entering Seoul from across the country and a nodal point where they flow into Seoul’s autonomous districts. Meanwhile, Gangnam 3 districts and Seongdong showed outflow to surrounding autonomous districts and Gyeonggi Province due to housing reasons, and Dobong and Nowon also showed strong outflow patterns to other regions.

Accordingly, the institute advised that a response strategy is needed for the continuous net outflow of Seoul’s population. Park Hyung-soo, president of the Seoul Institute, said, “Many people who left Seoul due to a shortage of new housing supply still maintain their Seoul living area, and net inflow to Seoul for education and work remains high, so it is time to prepare strategies to manage and respond to the direction and speed of population change.” He emphasized, “It is urgent to supply affordable, high-quality new housing within Seoul through appropriate methods and levels of housing supply (such as redevelopment and reconstruction projects), while conducting monitoring of jeonse and monthly rent and establishing financial programs to manage housing costs.”

He added, “It is also necessary to realize proximity of residence and workplace through complex development in central areas and prepare tailored strategies for prioritized groups, introduce customized population policies considering migration patterns and locational characteristics by autonomous district, and furthermore, to discover urban management tasks according to population changes and strive to respond to regional imbalances to secure urban competitiveness.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.