[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Next Defense Policy Seen Through Candidate Lee Jong-seop's Remarks

Emphasis on North Korea's Ballistic Missile Security Council Violation... Strengthening of ROK-US Joint Exercises Expected in Second Half
September 19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement Maintained, Internal Review of Defense White Paper's Main Enemy Expression

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] The confirmation hearing of Defense Minister nominee Lee Jong-seop revealed the outline of future defense policies. Amid ongoing provocations by North Korea, it is expected that military responses will be strengthened along with an acceleration of the wartime operational control (OPCON) transfer.

At the National Assembly confirmation hearing on the 4th, Defense Minister nominee Lee Jong-seop defined the ballistic missiles launched by North Korea as violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions.

On the same day, the Joint Chiefs of Staff announced that at 12:03 p.m., one ballistic missile was launched from the Sunan area of Pyongyang toward the East Sea. The ballistic missile detected by the military had a flight distance of approximately 470 km, an altitude of about 780 km, and a speed of Mach 11.

Military experts have suggested the possibility that North Korea launched the failed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-15 from last month again with a reduced range as a retest. Pyongyang Sunan was the site where North Korea launched the ICBM at maximum performance on March 24.

As North Korea’s provocations continue, it is expected that the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises will be strengthened to accelerate the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON).

Nominee Lee said, "We must bring OPCON back someday, and it should be brought back as early as possible," adding, "I think we need to meet the conditions to bring it back as soon as possible."

In written answers submitted to the National Assembly, Lee also expressed his intention to significantly resume South Korea-U.S. joint exercises starting this year. The South Korean military has conducted the South Korea-U.S. joint Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises annually in March-April, the South Korean solo Taeguk exercise in June, the South Korea-U.S. joint Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) in August, and the South Korean solo live-fire defense exercises in November to prepare for a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula. However, all these exercises were abolished in 2019.

Lee’s intention to strengthen South Korea-U.S. joint exercises stems from the increased possibility of a North Korean nuclear preemptive strike. Regarding the possibility of a North Korean nuclear preemptive strike, Lee said, "South Korea is also a target." However, he also stated that since South Korea lacks the capability to respond to North Korean nuclear weapons, it will make maximum use of the U.S. extended deterrence.

The September 19 inter-Korean military agreement, reached during the Moon Jae-in administration, is expected to be maintained for the time being. During the confirmation hearing, the People Power Party pointed out that North Korea has not properly implemented the agreement, citing North Korea’s Changrindo coastal artillery firing drills and the demolition of the inter-Korean liaison office, but emphasized that there is no intention to discard the agreement.

In March, North Korea launched four multiple rocket launchers (the North Korean term for multiple launch rocket systems) in the Sukchon area north of Pyongyang. However, the Ministry of National Defense stated that the maritime buffer zone set under the September 19 military agreement extends from north of Deokjeokdo in the West Sea on the South Korean side to south of Chodo near Nampo on the North Korean side, covering a 135 km section, and that the launch did not fall within the "maritime buffer zone," so it did not constitute a violation of the military agreement, which sparked some controversy.

The expression "main enemy" regarding North Korea is expected to be reviewed. Although nominee Lee recognizes North Korea as an enemy, he said he would further consider how to describe this in the defense white paper.

The expression "main enemy" in the defense white paper has changed with each administration. The term first appeared in the 1995 defense white paper. It emerged following North Korean representative Park Young-soo’s "Seoul will be a sea of fire" remark during the 8th working-level talks held in March 1994 at Panmunjom for inter-Korean special envoy exchanges. However, the 2004 defense white paper published during the Roh Moo-hyun administration removed the term "main enemy" (주적) and replaced it with "direct military threat."

Subsequently, the 2006 defense white paper described the enemy as "the existing military threat from North Korea," and the 2008 defense white paper under the Lee Myung-bak administration described it as "North Korea’s direct and serious threat." After the Cheonan ship sinking incident in March 2010, hardline policies toward North Korea intensified, and there was discussion about formalizing the "main enemy" concept, but due to concerns over controversy, the defense white papers published from 2010 to 2016 have described the North Korean regime and military as our enemy.

Additionally, the 2020 defense white paper defines the concept of "enemy" as "Our military considers forces that threaten and infringe upon the sovereignty, territory, people, and property of the Republic of Korea as our enemies." This maintains the expression used in the 2018 defense white paper.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.