China's Economic Growth Rate of 5.5% This Year Is Difficult

Less than a month after the Two Sessions ended, voices say it's impossible... 5.19% forecast
Q1 growth rate forecast at 4.49% this year

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] Chinese economic experts have forecasted that China's economic growth rate this year will be limited to 5.19%. This is lower than the 5.5% target set by the Chinese government. This means that less than a month after the conclusion of the largest political event in China, the Two Sessions (National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference), voices are emerging that achieving the target will be difficult.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 8th, the Chinese economic media outlet Caijing reported that China's economic growth rate this year is expected to grow by 5.19% compared to the previous year.

Caijing conducted a survey of 21 Chinese experts on the economic outlook for this year, and reported that 17 experts responded that this year's economic growth rate would be lower than the government's target. They also predicted that the growth rate for the first quarter (January to March) would fall significantly short of 5%, reaching only 4.49%.

Within China, the economic situation is judged as 'below 5%', '5 to 5.5%', or 'above 5.5%'. Below 5% indicates that the Chinese economy is not doing well, while above 5.5% indicates that the Chinese economy is doing well.

An Huading, chief analyst at China Merchants Bank, said, "The current macroeconomy of China is facing a very complex situation due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the pandemic," expressing concern that "this year's Chinese economic indicators are not optimistic."

Zhou Xue, a researcher at Mizuho Securities, diagnosed that "due to the Omicron variant, China's quarantine policies will be further strengthened," and as a result, the service industry will suffer the greatest damage. Caijing explained that the common view among economic experts is that there are limitations to achieving the GDP target set at this year's Two Sessions.

Caijing further added that due to lockdown measures following the spread of COVID-19 in major cities such as Shanghai, economic growth in the second quarter, April and May, could slow further, and preparations should be made for employment and difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises. Chinese authorities announced the previous day that the daily number of new COVID-19 cases in Shanghai exceeded 21,000.

They also added that more proactive policy adjustments regarding fixed asset investments such as real estate are necessary for a virtuous economic cycle.

Meanwhile, Premier Li Keqiang, after diagnosing at the State Council executive meeting that the economic outlook has deviated somewhat, instructed, "Since there is significant downward pressure on the economy, please introduce more proactive policies and strive to help the real economy."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.