Kim Jong-un Likely to Conduct Military Provocations Including ICBM and SLBM in April

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] There is a forecast that Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, will soon carry out a military provocation to shift the situation on the Korean Peninsula and demonstrate military strength.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to diplomatic circles on the 7th, considering recent movements at North Korea's major missile bases and military activities, as well as warning messages from Kim Yo-jong, Vice Department Director of the Workers' Party, it is known that there is a high possibility of experiments such as reconnaissance satellite launches, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) within this month.

First, North Korea has scheduled major political commemorative events this month. North Korea has historically heightened tensions through military demonstrations during major anniversaries, known as 'jeongjunyeon,' which occur every 5 or 10 years, to strengthen regime cohesion and send external messages. Given that there are many jeongjunyeon anniversaries this April, it is expected that the tension level will rise.

On the 11th, it will be the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong-un being appointed as the First Secretary of the Party at the 4th Workers' Party Representative Conference in 2012. On the 13th, he was appointed as the First Chairman of the National Defense Commission through the 5th session of the 12th Supreme People's Assembly.

On the 15th, it will be the 110th anniversary of the birth of President Kim Il-sung, known as the Day of the Sun. The Day of the Sun, along with the Day of the Shining Star, which marks the birthday of Kim Jong-il, is considered one of the biggest holidays in North Korea.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 25th, it will be the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Anti-Japanese Guerrilla Force and the Korean People's Revolutionary Army, organized by President Kim Il-sung. The Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea agreed on January 19th during a Politburo meeting to celebrate the birthdays of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il as the first agenda item.

In particular, South Korea and the United States plan to conduct joint exercises in the first half of this year around mid-April. From the 12th to the 15th, they will conduct the 'Crisis Management Staff Training' (CMST), a preparatory exercise simulating wartime situations on the Korean Peninsula, followed by the main joint command post exercise from the 18th to the 28th.

In this regard, South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies have recently detected movements in North Korea indicating preparations for military provocations. Signs of preparations for a 7th nuclear test using Tunnel No. 3 at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, have been observed, along with movements related to modernization work at the West Sea Satellite Launching Station in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province.

Accordingly, there is a high possibility that North Korea will launch an ICBM under the pretext of launching a reconnaissance satellite. Although the successful launch of the 'Hwasong-17' ICBM was heavily publicized domestically and internationally last month, suspicions of fabrication have arisen, and with the upcoming inauguration of South Korea's new government, North Korea is likely to try to demonstrate its status as a nuclear power in some way.

Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, stated in a recent report titled 'North Korea's Kim Yo-jong's Statements on South Korea and the Background of the Preemptive Strike Theory' that "Kim Yo-jong's statements have played a role in roughly opening the way for offensive tactical changes," and "this could be a prelude to aggression against the new government." He also predicted, "There could be a military reconnaissance satellite launch or SLBM test in April."

South Korea and the United States have taken a firm stance against North Korea's military provocations. The two countries have already decided to strongly respond by pushing for a new United Nations Security Council resolution against North Korea's ongoing military provocations, including ICBM test launches.

While pressuring China and Russia, who have exercised veto power against additional sanctions on North Korea at the Security Council, South Korea and the U.S. have also hinted at high-intensity military demonstrations against North Korea, such as the deployment of strategic assets.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.