[In-Depth Look] The Black Swan Syndrome

Dongchul Kim, Ph.D. in Engineering · Advisor at Metanet T Platform

A scientific approach is a method based on data that allows for objective verification. However, since data comes from experience, it inevitably has limitations. Before 1967, empirical data from Western scientists described swans as large white birds. Dictionaries and books also depicted swans as unquestionably white. However, the moment black swans were discovered in Australia in 1967, all previous knowledge was completely overturned. The syndrome called the "Black Swan" refers to an event that seemed impossible to occur but eventually does.

Nasim Nicholas Taleb, a Lebanese-born thinker, became famous for predicting the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in his book Black Swan (2008). Using the example of a turkey raised at home to illustrate an unprecedented event not found in past experience: for the turkey, the owner is data representing a benevolent figure who takes good care of it. The data that the kind owner would slaughter it on Thanksgiving Day is not part of the turkey’s experience. Yet, it inevitably happens. Many have heard the phrase "this has never happened before" during a series of events such as the U.S. 9/11 attacks, presidential impeachment, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These are all examples of the Black Swan phenomenon.

We live in a world accustomed to average thinking. Deviating from the average is statistically unlikely. Average-based thinking grounded in past experience significantly contributed to the misprediction of the COVID-19 peak. Looking back at past new influenza cases like SARS or MERS, people survived without much panic. This is the empirical data humans possess. No government predicted that COVID-19 would become a pandemic on the scale of the Black Death. The emergence of a powerful virus surpassing everyone’s predictions was not entirely unpredictable when viewed on a roughly hundred-year cycle, but relying solely on available data led to repeated mispredictions. The Black Swan that appeared this time was also partly man-made.

While the virus caused the pandemic, the Black Swan phenomenon created by incorrect predictions brought panic to people. News is flooded with statistics on COVID-19 confirmed cases, critically ill patients, and related deaths. However, behind the scenes, interest in existing diseases has decreased, likely increasing cases of untreated common symptoms leading to death. When statistics become mere news items, the number of innocent victims rises. Even illness should be at the center of news coverage.

Empirical errors caused by predictions based on partial rather than complete data, or statistics not covering the entire population, will turn the pandemic into panic and lead to stages of helplessness and resignation. If the current situation had occurred in a socially immature state, it would have caused great confusion, but fortunately, Korea’s level is not such. It is said that if 10% of soldiers die in war, victory is hard to guarantee. If 25% of the entire population is infected, scientific approaches toward the remaining 75% are also necessary. The Black Swan created by humans can be solved by humans.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.