[Global Focus] "Russia Sanctions or Support?" How Long Will China's Silence Last?

Voices Criticizing Pro-Russian Stance Emerge Internally
Difficult to Avoid Risks of Prolonged War
Risk of Secondary Boycott if Careless

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyunjung] As the war resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its second month, China finds itself at a crossroads between its 'foreign policy principles' and 'diplomatic course.' The diplomatic direction to maintain friendly relations with Russia directly contradicts the principle of 'respect for national sovereignty' that China has asserted internationally against Taiwan. While the US-China hegemonic competition intensifies, the relationship with Russia remains a diplomatic asset China cannot easily relinquish, but it cannot indefinitely ignore the international community's sanctions trend.

China is scheduled to hold a summit with the European Union (EU) on the 1st of next month. It is expected that China will have to respond in some way to Western questions regarding the Ukraine issue at this meeting. So far, China's apparent and mechanical neutrality, which has leaned somewhat toward Russia, will once again face pressure from the international community.

In this regard, on the 28th, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) cited a European government source familiar with the agenda of the upcoming China-EU summit, reporting that "It has been made clear to China that there is a desire to discuss Ukraine at this summit." Another European government official explained, "It is reasonable to expect China to state that it will not support Russia."

◆ Uncomfortable Sentiments Toward Pro-Western Voices = China is clearly holding Russia's hand. It refers to the Ukraine invasion as a 'conflict' or Russia's 'special military operation' and has taken a stance that seems to understand Russia's grievances about NATO expansion.

China has not hidden its discomfort regarding internal criticism of its pro-Russian actions. Shortly after the Ukraine invasion, on the 26th of last month, five Chinese historians including Professor Sun Jiang of Nanjing University posted a statement urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the war, but the post disappeared within two hours.

On the 12th of this month, Hu Wei, Deputy Director of the Public Policy Research Center under the Chinese State Council, published an article in the Chinese edition of the web magazine issued by the US Carter Center, stating that "breaking ties with Putin and abandoning neutrality would help build China's international image and ease relations with the US and the West." However, this article was also blocked from access online after circulating briefly.

In this context, cautious critical voices are emerging within China. Professor Zhang Guihong of Fudan University’s International Relations Department emphasized that China needs to better balance values and interests. He said, "We are leaning toward Russia, but we must also consider the conclusions we should assert," implying that China should consider the 'sovereignty' and 'territorial integrity' principles it has promoted as diplomatic policy principles.

Professor Zhang pointed out, "The only legal options for using force in international relations are orders from the UN Security Council and self-defense forces," adding, "Although Russia felt threatened by NATO expansion, that is a future threat and not a direct threat justifying self-defense."

◆ Is the War an Opportunity for China? Opinions Diverge = The economic impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the war itself on China is limited. China's investment in Russia was about $12 billion in 2020, accounting for only 0.5% of its total overseas investment, and trade between the two countries has been increasing since 2015 but remains a modest 2.2% (about $102.9 billion) of China's total trade volume in 2020. Investment and trade with Ukraine are even smaller, at $190 million (0.01%) and $15.4 billion (0.2%), respectively.

The China Strategy Think Tank, a website supported by Beijing scholars, argued that the conflict actually provides strategic opportunities for China. The authors stated, "The prolongation of the fighting will further exhaust Europe, the US, and Russia, which overall benefits China," and analyzed that "in the new order emerging after the war, China could rise as a mediator and even as a maker of new rules."

Some mention positive effects in terms of securing raw materials. The logic is that the more Russia depends on China due to international sanctions, the more China can procure raw materials such as potash, coal, and meat from Russia at lower prices. In fact, China imports relatively high proportions of crude oil (16%), coal (11%), aluminum (17.3%), natural gas (18.9%), fertilizer (27.9%), corn (27.1%), and barley (25.8%) from Russia.

On the other hand, there are claims that risks increase as the war prolongs. Europe, forced to increase defense spending, could evolve into a more independent and new geopolitical power from the US. Zhao Tong, senior researcher at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, explained, "There is speculation that Europe will need China more in such a situation, but I believe this is a misjudgment."

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

◆ Russia's Last Remaining Friend... China Takes a More Neutral Stance = Recently, China has shown a tendency to emphasize a more neutral position. Especially after the US government on the 23rd (local time) reinstated tariff exemptions on 352 Chinese products as a gesture to ease tensions, reports emerged that Sinopec, China's largest state-owned petrochemical company, has suspended Russian energy-related projects.

The Russian energy projects suspended by Sinopec reportedly include plans to build a new natural gas chemical plant in partnership with Sibur, Russia's largest petrochemical company. Major foreign media interpreted this move as reflecting the Chinese government's judgment considering Western sanctions against Russia.

Alan Carlson, Associate Professor at Cornell University, said, "It is a mistake to overestimate the strength of the friendship between China and Russia," adding, "The likelihood that Chinese President Xi Jinping would allow China to become embroiled in the conflict by providing direct military support to Russia is very low." He also assessed that it is difficult to expect China to play an active mediator role. He added, "China's most important issue is not to end the war or strengthen friendly relations but to protect its own interests."

If the war and sanctions against Russia prolong, China could also become a target of 'secondary boycott' by the international community for violating economic sanctions. In the worst case, China could be excluded from the dollar payment system of financial institutions or face difficulties in semiconductor supply, increasing negative impacts. Lee Seungshin, head of the China Economy Division at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, explained, "Since nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and parts, and electrical and video equipment and parts?which may include semiconductors?are China's main export items to Russia, there is a possibility that China could become a target of 'secondary boycott.'"

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.