North Korea's Next Military Provocation Card Is

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Military Specialist Reporter Yang Nak-gyu, Reporter Lee Ji-eun] North Korean Workers' Party General Secretary Kim Jong-un stated, "We must become stronger," and announced plans to develop and deploy more powerful offensive means. By mentioning a "long-term confrontation with the United States," General Secretary Kim referred to specific measures to strengthen offensive capabilities. This is interpreted as an intention to advance the miniaturization of nuclear warheads through not only the launch of new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) but also additional nuclear tests.

According to the Korean Central News Agency on the 28th, General Secretary Kim made these remarks during a commemorative photo session with scientists, technicians, workers, and other defense sector personnel who contributed to the launch of the new ICBM, claimed to be the 'Hwasong-17.'

North Korea launched an ICBM on the 24th for the first time in 4 years and 4 months. While North Korea claims it was the 'Hwasong-17,' known as the monster ICBM, South Korea and the United States concluded that it was not a new model but the existing 'Hwasong-15.'

General Secretary Kim's mention of "developing powerful offensive means" is analyzed as an intention to continue test launches of the Hwasong-17, which has not yet been successfully developed. The likely timing for additional provocations is the 110th anniversary of the Day of the Sun (Kim Il-sung's birthday) on the 15th of next month. Movements have been continuously detected at the West Sea Satellite Launching Station, which was ordered to be modified for reconnaissance satellite launches.

Additional nuclear tests are also possible. The military and intelligence authorities assess that a nuclear test could occur as early as mid-next month. There are signs of efforts to rapidly restore the third tunnel of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, which was demolished four years ago, including the excavation of a new passageway leading inside the tunnel. At the current pace of restoration, it cannot be ruled out that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test around the 25th of next month, marking the 90th anniversary of the anti-Japanese guerrilla organization founded by Kim Il-sung, whom the Korean People's Army regards as its origin.

Simultaneous multiple provocations are also possible. North Korea has previously conducted nuclear tests and ICBM launches at intervals of 1 to 2 months. In 2012, North Korea carried out its third nuclear test two months after launching the Unha-3 (long-range rocket), and in 2016, it launched the Kwangmyongsong (long-range rocket) one month after the fourth nuclear test.

A government official said, "On the 25th, the United Nations Security Council again failed to issue a statement condemning North Korea due to opposition from China and Russia," adding, "North Korea may try to frame its high-intensity provocations as a confrontation between the North China Russia bloc and the South Korea United States Japan bloc, leveraging its friendly relations with China."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.