Deadlock in Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks... Does Putin Have a Different Agenda?

Territorial Dispute and Security Guarantees Standoff
Ukraine and NATO Agree on Major Framework to Abandon NATO Membership and Neutrality
Russia Recognizes Crimea Occupation, Standoff Over Donbas Demands

Putin Slams West as "Trash and Traitors" with Hardline Remarks
Russian Casualties Exceed 10% of Forces... Some Say "Time Needed for Reinforcements"

US Warns "Russia May Prepare to Use Chemical Weapons of Mass Destruction"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have entered their fourth day, but no consensus has been reached on key issues such as territorial disputes and Ukraine's security guarantees. In particular, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed his determination to continue the war in an unprecedentedly strong tone, raising suspicions that Russia may be stalling to reinforce its troops.

Despite the Russian military facing severe difficulties, the Putin administration continues to push the war forward, raising concerns about the possible use of weapons of mass destruction, including chemical weapons. U.S. intelligence agencies have also warned that if Russia becomes more cornered, it could seriously escalate nuclear threats.

◆ Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Stalemate... What Are the Issues?

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

On the 17th (local time), Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the Russian Kremlin, said in a press briefing, "Reports of substantial progress in peace talks with Ukraine are incorrect," adding, "Ukraine is not showing enthusiasm and is responding too leisurely."

In response to this statement, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Ukrainian presidential office leading the Ukrainian negotiation team, tweeted, "Those relaying the talks who are not direct participants should not spread lies," and stated, "There are fundamentally inviolable issues among Russia's claims."

According to CNN, the negotiation teams of both countries have broadly agreed on issues such as Ukraine's renunciation of NATO membership and its neutral status. However, there are significant disagreements over territorial issues and security guarantees. Russia demands recognition of its occupation of the Crimea Peninsula and the separation and independence of the Donbas region, but Ukraine firmly opposes conceding even an inch of its territory.

Regarding security guarantees, Ukraine insists that instead of accepting Russia's demand for neutralization, collective security guarantees from major powers, including the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, and Russia), should precede. On the same day, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated during talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevl?t ?avu?o?lu, "Ukraine hopes that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, as well as Germany and Turkey, will become part of its security guarantees."

◆ Is Putin Stalling... Over 10% Losses in Russian Troops

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

However, with President Putin expressing his determination to continue the war in an unprecedentedly tough tone, suspicions have arisen that Russia's intention may be to stall rather than negotiate.

In a video conference with regional governments the previous day, President Putin warned strongly, saying, "If we had not attacked Ukraine, they would have threatened Russia with weapons of mass destruction," and added, "The Russian people will be able to distinguish between trash and traitors who sympathize with the West and will spit them out onto the streets like bugs in their mouths."

The current situation is understood to be unfavorable for the Russian military. The New York Times (NYT) reported, citing intelligence briefings from senior U.S. administration officials, that "Russian military casualties exceed 7,000 dead, with 14,000 to 21,000 wounded, estimating losses of over 10% of the 150,000 invading troops," and noted, "A casualty rate above 10% in a single unit is considered combat ineffective. There are also reports of Russian soldiers abandoning vehicles and fleeing."

The Russian ground forces are also reported to have halted their advance. The U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pointed out in a report, "The Russian military failed to encircle Kyiv and Kharkiv, and with four generals killed, it requires time to reorganize command structures and reinforce troops."

◆ U.S. Warns "Possible Use of Chemical Weapons of Mass Destruction"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Blocked by Ukraine's resistance, Russia is instead using a strategy of bombing cities crowded with civilians to enforce its demands. The United States has warned of the possibility of Russia using weapons of mass destruction.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated, "Russia is not making meaningful efforts to end the war through diplomacy," and warned, "Russia may be preparing to use chemical weapons of mass destruction."

U.S. intelligence agencies have also issued warnings that Russia's nuclear threats will intensify. Scott Berrier, director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), testified before the House Armed Services Committee, saying, "Russia will increasingly demonstrate its nuclear deterrence both domestically and internationally and use nuclear threats to deter countries supporting Ukraine."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.