Lee Jae-gap: "Stop Wordplay, Even the Flu Causes Medical Collapse if 400,000 Cases Occur in One Day"

"Cannot Prevent High-Risk Group Infections Without Reducing Epidemic Scale"
"All Policy Measures Lifted... Government Must Acknowledge Limits"
Health Authorities Initially Predicted 370,000 Peak Cases
Exceeded 440,000 by 9 PM on the 15th

Professor Lee Jae-gap, Department of Infectious Diseases, Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital, who served as an advisory member of the COVID-19 Daily Recovery Support Committee and stepped down from the position on the 16th of last month / Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Juhyung] Professor Lee Jaegab, an infectious disease specialist at Hallym University Gangnam Sacred Heart Hospital, urged on the afternoon of the 15th for the government to "honestly confess the situation to the public" regarding the fact that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has surpassed 440,000 for the first time since the counting began.

In a post on his Facebook that day, Professor Lee said, "While treatment is possible if high-risk groups become infected, there is no quarantine policy anywhere that can focus on preventing infections among high-risk groups."

He continued, "Without reducing the scale of the outbreak, it is impossible to prevent infections among high-risk groups," and explained, "Even if we want to treat the increasing infections among high-risk groups, if patients exceed the capacity of the medical system, the number of deaths will surge."

According to figures compiled by local governments, the number of new COVID-19 cases recorded from midnight to 9 a.m. on that day was 441,423. This is the first time that the daily number of confirmed cases has reached the 400,000 range in both interim and full daily counts. Some have expressed concerns that the daily confirmed cases could approach 500,000 by the time the counting ends.

In response, Professor Lee said, "All available policy measures have been lifted," and appealed, "The government should acknowledge the limits of the medical system's capacity and honestly confess to the public that the current medical system is on the verge of collapse."

He also emphasized, "The public must be urged to participate in personal infection prevention efforts," adding, "It must not be delayed any longer."

On the afternoon of the 14th, medical staff are transferring a COVID-19 patient at Seobuk Hospital in Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul. / Photo by Yonhap News

He criticized, "Stop the nonsensical wordplay comparing the fatality rate of COVID-19 to that of the flu. When has the flu ever had 400,000 confirmed cases per day?" and added, "If the flu had 400,000 cases per day, the medical system would collapse as well."

Professor Lee served as an advisory member of the government's COVID-19 Daily Recovery Support Committee but resigned voluntarily on the 16th of last month in protest against the government's easing of quarantine guidelines.

In an interview with a radio broadcast on the 14th, he expressed concern, saying, "(The peak of the COVID-19 outbreak) could be delayed by about 1 to 2 weeks compared to expectations," and explained, "During the 4th wave, the increase curve flattened from the week before the peak, but (this time) the curve continues to rise even after surpassing 300,000 cases last week."

He urged, "There has been a lack of government messaging aimed at reducing public mobility," and said, "It is time to seriously start considering how to prepare the medical system if infections worsen."

◆Daily confirmed cases exceed 440,000... Did predictive modeling miss the mark?

Earlier, health authorities predicted that the current outbreak caused by the Omicron variant would peak around the 23rd, with a maximum daily average of about 370,000 confirmed cases.

Some domestic research institutions create 'infectious disease spread mathematical models' that predict infection trends using various data such as the basic reproduction number, vaccination rates, antibody detection rates in the population, and social distancing levels. The Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) has been using models from a total of seven research teams to forecast the COVID-19 situation.

The government will announce new social distancing measures on the 18th after gathering opinions from medical experts, self-employed individuals, and small business owners on the 16th. The photo shows a commercial area in Jongno-gu, Seoul at night on the 15th. Photo by Yonhap News.

However, as the number of new confirmed cases exceeded 440,000 by 9 p.m. on the 15th, concerns have arisen that the existing models may have failed to predict the COVID-19 outbreak accurately.

South Korea introduced a new testing method on the 14th that recognizes positive rapid antigen test results as confirmed cases. This may have caused a sudden increase in confirmed cases. Compared to the existing polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests, which have an accuracy of 99.9%, rapid antigen tests tend to produce false positives somewhat more frequently.

Regarding this, Jung Tongryong, head of the CDCH's general coordination team, stated at a briefing on the 15th, "An increase of about 5 to 10% in confirmed cases is expected due to the new testing method."

The problem is that even considering the variable of rapid antigen testing, the current increase in infections cannot be fully explained. A 10% increase over the predicted peak of 370,000 cases would be about 410,000, which is still less than the 440,000 cases recorded.

Meanwhile, the health authorities plan to hold a written meeting of the Daily Recovery Support Committee on the 16th to gather opinions from quarantine and medical experts, as well as small business owners and self-employed individuals, regarding adjustments to social distancing measures. The new social distancing guidelines prepared through this discussion will be announced on the 18th.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.